Market Outlook for the Week of 12/19/22

Welcome everyone to the Traders Market Intelligence Report. My name is Robert Roy, and this is brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. Hope you’re having a fantastic day. I hope it was a great trading week. Man, we got a lot of stuff to go through. Even when things go the way they’re supposed to go, they don’t go the way they’re supposed to go. Everything the Fed said was gonna happen. We see the CPI go a little bit better. We see PPI go better. PMI is better. The fed rate was low and then was expected to be from a few weeks ago, right on track. And we’re only looking at three quarter point more hike, and we still go down. And then what happens then? Retail sales come out that show less sales, which means slower economy, which is what you need to get outta the inflation. And the market goes down. You can win in this marketplace! Welcome everybody. I hope you’re excited about it. All right, let’s go ahead and dive right in.

So I wanna start off first with the economic reports. And we don’t have a whole lot going on next week. Remember holiday week next week, you’ve got Christmas coming up on Sunday. So we will still get some stuff done on Friday, but we will not do another intelligence report after that for this year. So I’ll let you know what’s happening there, but I’m pretty confident we’re gonna get it for this week. Consumer confidence comes out on Wednesday, which is the 21st. It’s red unemployment on Thursday and Friday the 23rd. It’s the core PCE, which is the price index. It’s a month over month claim. So we’ll see where those numbers go.

But right now, man oh man, oh man, oh man. We can’t really look at VIX as our indicator, right? We need to look at the S&P. Let’s check that puppy out, right? So again, bigger overall, overall bigger picture is a bearish pattern where we had an and had past tense, had an intra pattern bullish move, right? In other words, we had a small bullish move and an overall bigger bearish pattern. And what’s going on here? Kerplunk, kerplunk, right? Just, it didn’t stop. I mean, we hit these highs, we hit a high right? Recent high, just barely above that wick, but kind of a double top pattern in there. And we have just slid for four straight days. It ain’t going right. Everything I’ve been saying is gonna happen for the last couple of weeks is coming to fruition right now. We’re seeing those pullbacks. Now, are we gonna drop from here? Is this a collapse from here? I’m not saying that. I think people are over anxious, over ambitious, wanting it to go up, wanting it to go up. And now when some, some of the signs are there of, “ooh, the economy might be cooling down a little bit, right? And some of that is coming out. There’s only one week left until the holidays got this last weekend and that’s it. And then you got Saturday, I guess of next week is Christmas Eve. So it is a shopping day, but it’s not when most people are out there shopping, right? So retail sales may suffer because of this. Look at some of the shippers to help you understand that as well as far as delivery goes. Okay? as the shipper goes, so go the holiday. So goes to market, right?

So we do see this pullback taking place and they’re four days in a row and we look at the fib of what’s going on, right? Wow. Are just crazy pattern in there. So great, move up, nice pullback, move back up again. Pennies. I think it’s 45 cents higher than the previous high. And then we have just slid straight down from there. Not a pretty thing. We are in a bearish bias right now on the S&P for a daily chart. When we look at the weekly chart, man, it, I mean, look at this wild ride on this candle for this week of where we went, just ripping to the upside, right? Ripping to the upside. And then we look at our monthly chart and what’s going on in monthly. Well, we don’t need to bring it any further out than that. Same scenario. We barely closed last week last month above and this month to the downside, right? Just UGLY to the downside, when we go back and look into intraday, move on the s and p look at today. You know, we came out opened flat, small move up right into the moving action. I mean, we had perfect setups over and over again today on the market, right? Good fail off of there. Then we got flat through the day and then, you know, finally gave a little bit back, some covering short coverings into the end of the day before we got that climb back up. But we’re still down a decent amount today. We’re down 43 points, right? If you look at the futures, and the futures are slightly different than the market, but the s and p is down 54. The Dow is down 362, the NASDAQ’s on 137 better than the two and jingle, it was the other day, the RUT down 17 Bitcoin is down back under 17,000 again.

Ethereum is back under 1200. Again, gold is up a little bit. 15 points and crude is down to 74 and a half dollars. So things are just mish-mashed all over the flipin’ place with no rhyme, no reason to where we should be going and things people should be looking at.

So are things getting better? It all depends what your definition of better is. Is it better for the economy? Well, it’s better for inflation. For the economy, will this hurt the economy a little bit with slowing, slowing down in sales? I mean, look, what we’ve seen with housing markets, I’m watching that very closely. And even though interest rates are going up, banks are keeping rates lower. They’re not raising with the interest rate hikes from the Fed. Why? Because if they do, there’s already a, a tremendous amount less people buying homes. They just can’t afford it.

The place that we’re looking, I am seeing a huge amount of homes come on the market right now and show themselves, right? And I’m also watching those every week we get this, you know, email that says, here’s 20 homes that have adjusted their price. Or now we’re at 50 and 70 home adjustments on price, meaning lower, not higher because they’re not selling for what they’re wanting a to sell for, right? We’re in that exact mode right now. So is it better? It’s better for inflation, but the economy has to suffer for inflation to come back into line, right? Or come back in line that into line, right? So there’s a lot of stuff happening. Is the Santa Claus rally gonna happen? I don’t know. I mean, with what we’re looking at right now, we’re two weeks away from the holidays, right? Actually we’re a week away from the holidays.

What am they talking about? We’re one full week away from the holidays, right? And then just fyi, the week of the 26th through the 2nd of January, our office is closed. We’ll still have a few skeleton things going on, but the office itself is closed. So, you know, if you send an email, you know, understand we’re with our families as well, we’ll get back to you guys as soon as possible if there are some technical things we will be monitoring, keeping eye on that. So don’t worry about that. All right? So there you have it ladies. In general, if we go back in one last time, look, look at that S&P 500 chart. It is ugly. It is ugly, ugly.

So what are we looking at? We’re looking for that pullback to that 3812 to 3,800 level ish, right? Right inside of there. And if we violate that 3570 3751 on the upside confluence of the 3911, right? I would love, love, it didn’t happen today. I would’ve loved to have seen a pull back up to that level first, that 39 11 level and a fail off of that, then I could have got real excited about that move down. So I wouldn’t mind seeing a pull back go up there a little bit, a little bit of recovery after the four days of beating that we have taken over the head. So caution is the word, ladies and gentlemen, right? Danger lurks around every corner right now, short term in out selling strategies, long directional trades holding for long periods of time. Be cautious. What does that mean? Look at credit spreads, look at diagonal spreads, naked puts, covered calls. I’m okay with all of those. They’re selling strategies. Short term day trading, right? I’m okay with day trading strategies, buying call options, holding ’em for weeks and months. I have a little more of an issue with that, right? That doesn’t mean you can’t find something to make money at, but the probability is not in your favor. So be cautious with that. Make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it. And remember, you’re just one trade away. Take care everybody. I will see you next week. Bye for now.