Market Outlook for the Week of 12/5/22

Welcome to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy, and this update is for the week of Monday, December 5th, 2022. Hope you had a great day. Hope it’s been a great trading week for you. Markets just wrapped up. Let’s go ahead and take a look.

So we’re gonna start off first with some economic reports to see what we’ve got coming up next week, because there is gonna be some potential turmoil over the next two weeks, next week’s economic reports. Nothing they really worry about until Friday where we’ve got, I mean, they’ve got ism, which is pmi, produ purchasing Managers Index. I don’t think that’s gonna really be an issue, but I think we’ve gotta look at the ppi, which is Producer Price Index, and then coming up the following week is when we start getting into cpi, the Fed and all that good stuff.

So definitely something to take a look at. With that being said, we look at the vix, the Fear Factor, and we are down. I mean, the market is the vix, the market will know. Oh, right. VIS has been coming down and working. Awesome, right? We’re at 19.07 right now, extremely low vix. We are on the low end of green. When I started this red green yellow index on the vix, we were in at the higher third of the VIX on green, and now we’re at the lower third getting ready to potentially breach and end up in the yellow zone, which is low. That is awesome as far as costs and volatilities go. All right, so let’s go take a look at the s and p 500. That’s what we’re all here for, right? We wanna know what this X SPX is doing. So I talked about this a little bit this morning in my market mornings video that we do every day.

And we had a, a nice breakout two days ago yesterday. We pulled back a little bit today, we gapped down and we closed up. That was a great move for potential bullishness. Without a doubt. We needed to see something like that happen, right? Because that gap down was very concerning. Now, it didn’t gap to the moving average. It looks like the moving average was down here from the previous day. That’s just where we closed today. That’s all based on what the last tick of the day did is where the moving average wound up closing up. If we are gonna see a break from this, right? We’ve got two major levels to contend with there. You’ve got the 4119 and the 4181. They are both critical, right? If we look back at a bigger picture, and 4119 is where we left off with you know, the, the previous high on the way down there. We’ve gotta get above that previous high there. We’ve had some nice higher highs and higher lows here, right? All doing good. This breakout’s extremely important.

Now with that being said, if we go ahead and add in some moving averages there. “Rob, You got moving averages.” I know, but I want to add the bigger ones in. You know, I’ve heard a lot of talk about this lately, and I want to make sure that you guys are seeing what is happening here, right? So I added two dashed lines right now. All right? The first one is the one that we have broken through which is the gray line. That is the, if you see it up in the top, you can see the color. That gray, that’s a 200 sipmple moving average. Okay? We broke through it on Wednesday, Thursday, we retested it today. We got below it, we closed above today. I don’t look at the 200, I look at the 233. You use what you use. You do, you, this is what works best for me. So the 200 is more of an early indication of where we are, but I don’t find it to be as accurate as the 233. You make your own determinations as to what works best for you, right? That 233 is this dash line that’s up above. We do have a confluence right now of that 233 and the top of the fib lines there, that blue line. So that’s some strength area for us to break through, okay? And we’re gonna see what happens with it, obviously over the next couple of days and or weeks, two weeks really to see where we are with the Fed. Week and a half, whatever it is.

Definitely some concern in there, but again, if we look right, bigger picture on the daily, we have been in an overall bullish market, bullish trend in a bearish market. We broke out of the upside today again, right? Actually we had broken out of it. We were above it yesterday. We got down and broke back above it again today. If we go and take a look now at the weekly options, not options, but charts, right? We go look at a weekly chart, we close for the first time on this pattern above the weekly down trend line. That still means we’ve gotta get above 4321 for me on a weekly process to say we are in some bullishness happening here. Have we had some good weeks? Yes. If we go look at a monthly chart, the monthly chart closed ever so slightly above the moving averages ever so slightly above that down trend, it is the first time since, well, actually that’s not true, we closed last month as well, and then we’ve just meandered. It’s been a very tiny candle just pinning itself off of the moving averages, the 8 and 21, and that’s all it’s been able to do up to this point is kind of trigger and play off of that.

So what is that telling us? What does that bring us to? What is that letting us understand and, and leading us to folks? Listen, it’s real clear, all right? Short term, we are in a longer trend bear market with a bullish recovery, taking place in there, a bullish bounce. Are we done going down yet? I don’t know, and I really don’t want to bet. I mean, I’ll give you great example. Today, I’m getting ready to look at puts on Tesla, puts on Google, covered calls on Google, Tesla, and Amazon, and instead, I decided to back off and I wanna see what starts to happen a little bit with the economic reports starting PMI again, the beginning of the week, and then Wednesday, I think it was Wednesday or Thursday, is the PPI. Now I wanna see what happens that I don’t wanna be on the wrong side of that that announcement. So I’m gonna just hold off on the writing with all the major stuff that’s coming out. Now, we’re at a transition point. If I’m right and the market does shift one way or another, right? I, when I say right, meaning there’s a big report. If I’m right, and let’s say that I think that the markets are headed down – I don’t believe we’re we’re done going down yet at all, but that doesn’t mean we’re not gonna bounce from here, right? Lot of strength in the markets today. I mean, what are we down today? Four and a half points, five points on the S&P? Nothing, it’s nothing! It’s a flat day. This was nothing. You can’t count a day like today and say, oh, we’re up yet, okay?

I mean, it’s nice to bounce wemade, but I don’t necessarily trust the move, okay? So if it does go down and I have sold some naked puts, I don’t wanna be on the wrong side. “Well, Rob, what if you’re wrong and it goes up?” Well, then if it goes up, it goes up. That’s okay. I’ll just look to sell another put next week, week after. Doesn’t have to be now, right? I am very much managing my risk in the potential of setting that trade up because I don’t wanna be on the wrong side. All right? So there you have it. Caution, caution, caution, caution is the key phrase. Lots of economic reports coming out over the next few weeks. Make sure to check ’em out. You can go look at ForexFactory o see what the reports are. There’s tons of places that you can find ’em, right? Use whatever works for you.

With that, make sure you go ahead and check out TradingLikeABoss.com, which is our premier site for all of our free content that we offer out there. There’s everything that’s on there. There’s no cost to it, as there’s trainings, documents, all that type of stuff that we put out there for you, you folks,day in and day out. It’s up there for you to download and, and learn from. All right? So make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the question, becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it. And remember, you’re just one trade away. Take care of everybody. I will see you at our next update. Bye for now.