Market Outlook for the Week of 11/21/22

Hey, and welcome to the Traders Market Intelligence Report. My name is Robert Roy, and this report is for the week of November 20th, 2022, Thanksgiving week. Everybody, hope it is a great week for you. Hope it was a good trading week this week. Uh, let’s go ahead and jump right in, guys. There’s a lot I want to get into today. So we’re gonna start off with the VIX.

You can see that nice rounding over pattern we had on the VIX there. We kind of dropped down, we climbed up a little, and today – kerplunk – gave it back again down to 23.11 on the VIX, which is absolutely outstanding. What a great overall move for vix.

Let’s go look at the S&P 500 today and see what it did. So I’m gonna bring us back into the ne the last couple of days of this week. So here we’re looking at Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday. So we pushed up last week on Friday. We got into this high right here that we had hit, we gapped, dropped down, closed down. At the end of the day, gapped up. Everybody’s saying, “yes, this is it, baby!” Came back down again on Wednesday. Thursday, we bounced right off of the .618 confluence of the eight moving average. Great strength area there. You cannot ask for two more important lines to stronger lines to “conflude?” Is that a word? Confluence? Conflude? I don’t know – to have confluence there. And then today we gapped up, gave back a little bit. We’re still about 19 points on the day, right? When you look at the overall picture, we’re bullish, right? It’s a bullish bias, true bullish bias. Be careful.

When you look at a weekly chart, right? We are still in an overall bearish pattern. When you look at a monthly chart we are in for the last 10 months, an overall bearish pattern. Break the trend lines, guys. That’s what we’re looking for. If we go back to daily one last time and see, we’ve got there. Here we are with our 4181. We’ve got a little bit of room to move to the upside. We’ve got our zero line up here where we started off our Fib move or our 1 line rather. We’ve got the .764 to break through. There’s a lot of potential to the upside there, right? When you look at from the overall on the week, we’re down on the week and it’s okay, right? The pattern still did what it was supposed to. We pressed higher, we got more recent, higher, high, pulled back and bounced. What’s the next key? Get back through the .764 again, close above the previous high we had here. Get above the highest high we had here. That wick, that’s the key. That’s the element. That’s the piece that we need to have right now. Get through that level. Make sure you’re thinking consistently, constantly on the market setback. Don’t do it from this very much honed-in, “I’m looking at today.” Only step back, look at a bigger picture. Look at the overall daily chart. Yes, it’s bullish. Look at the overall weekly chart. It’s been bearish for weeks, months on that monthly chart, excuse me. Ah, and the monthly chart. We’ve been bearish for eight or 10 months already, right? Don’t look at this as we’re a bull here. You know, is the market doing something great right now? Yes. But keep something in mind. What compelling reason is there for the market to go up? Some of the greatest economists in the world are calling for first, second quarter the crash, right? That’s where we drop.

Aam I saying we’re going down? I don’t know. I just don’t trust what’s happening here. We’ve had some good earnings, but now listen to the whispers. “Shhh we’re laying people off! We’re gotta keep it down low,” right? Amazon, general Electric, Twitter, you’re hearing these massive companies or meta right? Laying people off right now. I don’t think it’s to get back in. People that don’t wanna go back to work and wanna work from home only. I don’t believe so, but you’re gonna have a lot of people without jobs…when we have the one of the highest ever recorded credit card debts in history in the United States, people living on their credit cards, they can’t afford it. They just can’t afford it. Yes, COVID has caused craziness and people want to get out and they’re spending money and they’re going out to eat and they’re going out to restaurants. They’re going on vacation. Expensive hotels.

Listen, we just rented a hotel in Florida. It cost me over $1100 for three days for a hotel. The hotels, okay? It was near the beach, but this was nowhere near an $1,100 hotel. When you go back to where a pre covid that host hotel should have cost 700 or 800 bucks, right? We’re overpaying just for the sake of, “oh, I want to go,” right? Everything is too expensive. Everything is way too expensive. Go to a grocery store and check it out, right? Compare prices to where they are today, whether they were two years ago. Nuts. We have very high cost, very high inflation. The only thing keeping our gas down is we’re using our strategic reserves. That’s it. What happens when we have no more reserve left? What are we gonna do right then? We’re dead in the water, right? That’s somebody else’s mercy. Be very careful believing into this, that we’re in a bullish market right now. If you ask me bias? We are a true bullish bias, but I want to be cautious to not make this where I have to telling myself this is it. I’m, we’re going up, man. I need to buy, go long. Put all the money in Long. “Mm, okay. No, probably not. Not yet,” right? Keep your eye on the trades. Stay focused. Have a great trading week, and I will see all of you after Thanksgiving. So enjoy your Thanksgiving. Take care everybody. See you soon. Bye for now.