Hey guys, Tony Benson here with Wealth Builders HQ and creator of Patterns in Flash. I am filling in for Rob. He asked me to cover as he had a conflict, so I told him I’d be happy to if we haven’t met, welcome. Appreciate you coming out, spending a few minutes with me doing the Market Intelligence report. We’ll see if I can try to be as intelligent as Rob because he’s an awesome trader and even better coach.

Anyway, so we’re looking at the spx. This is the kind of intermediate term trend. If we go back and look a little longer term, Oops, let me get that activated. There we go. That is still, uh, pretty solid down trend in place. We’ve had this big giant pop, Let me come in a little closer here. As you obviously noticed on Thursday with the CPI news, uh, which to me, I mean, I expected if it came in better, it would pop a little bit.

This was a little bit overdone in my opinion. I actually think the Bulls overdid. It got too excited, um, because CPIs still really high. Yeah, it came in a little bit better than expected. It came in a little bit cooler than it, you know, it was before, but things are still really, really bad in the overall economy. The macro picture does not look good. Facebook just announced 11,000 layoffs. Redfin’s cutting, 13% of their staff. Um, other tech companies have announced layoffs. I know in the mortgage industry there’s already a big bunch of layoffs. I’ve got friends in there. Um, so the layoffs are starting to come in and that’s when things start to get worse. And if you pay attention to the overall market, typically at the beginning of recessions, when you go back and look historically right before the recession hits is when unemployment is at its low.

Unemployment almost always bottoms out right before the recession starts to kick in. And we did have a recession the first two quarters of this year, and then the last quarter we had a little bit of growth. It was anemic. Wasn’t that great? But, uh, we are most likely gonna turn back into a recession this next year, fourth quarter maybe. It’s hard to say what it’s gonna be like, uh, from a GDP perspective, but, uh, it’s not the big picture’s not looking good. You know, you got what’s going on with Bitcoin that just started last week. It just started a crater FTX filed for bankruptcy on Friday. Um, the founder of that is, sounds like I just saw something earlier today that he’s jetting off to Argentina from The Bahamas. Um, it sounds like he’s fleeing is what it sounds like. Um, who knows, you know, what he may or may not have done.

I know he, you know, he pledged a whole bunch of political donations. He gave a bunch of money politically when his company’s on fire and going down in flames. So it just seems really, really odd. Um, and that’s the concern with Bitcoin. It’s an unregulated industry and uh, it’s kind of the wild west essentially. So nobody knows what’s gonna happen with that. That could have a major drag on the market too. If the, the Bitcoin continues to crumble and continues to implode, then uh, that could have a, a dramatic effect on the overall market. So that’s one major concern. There’s not a whole lot of big news coming out this next week for the spx. Um, so I don’t know. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this week a little bit of a continued bullish rally. So what I would like to see, uh, but I’m a little biased because I am on the bear side, so these last two days were not fun for me. I would like to see it pull back to 39. I’d like to see it just crater myself, but that’s my bias.

What I think will happen is this thing will probably stall out a little bit, uh, because these runs, especially with this massive pop, they usually don’t keep going forever. They pull back and actually it would be healthy for it to pull back. Kinda like here, right? You got this four day move. Well, I mean we had a one big drop and it didn’t really pull back and just continued the tank. Um, but I guess this is probably a better example here is we had a breakout, right? And it’s actually, this is pretty similar. We had a down day recognized in that $3,900 resistance and then the next day it popped through it and rallied for three days, but then it pulled back.

So this is what I would expect to have happen this next week is for it to have a pullback. We may have one more day of the upside and then a pullback back to this level and then possibly a launch like this. So this is actually interesting. I didn’t see that earlier, but this is a very similar look to what we have going right now. So this is what I would be expecting, but who knows, right? Bitcoin if it, like I said, if it crumbles, it could completely change things. If some kind of news comes out, we don’t expect if some other big name comes out and announces massive layoffs or there’s still some earnings coming in. I think the bulk of the big names are out. But there may be some more earnings coming this week that you know, could have an impact. But may, who knows, right?

It’s always hard to tell. It’s always 50 50. Hence the reason that we use stops and make sure that we are, um, being smart about trade, right? So there’s a long term picture. If we go to monthly, there is uh, if we’re looking just since the bottom in 2009, the spx, this bear trend could easily come down to, well that will probably, by the time it gets down here, it probably be up here about that 3,300 level. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen in the next six months to a year. But let me freak you all out. Really big time <laugh>. Look, if you know how to trade, that’s the beauty of trading. We can trade upside or downside, okay? In this one, I’ve showed this a bunch of times to a lot of people and some people freak out and they’re like, Oh my gosh.

Well if you know how to trade down, then who cares, right? It doesn’t matter. Buy puts short to stock. Do something to make sure that if you have a portfolio of stocks and do something to protect the downside, learn to write calls because that way if things do continue to fall over the next year or two and they stay bearish, then you can at least cash flow the stock. Even though you may be losing value in the asset, at least you’re collecting something, right? This is my big term, this is my big picture perspective, okay? This is the entire history of the spx. This is your yearly candles, right? So yearly chart, you can see here the 29 crash, right? It started in 28, peaked out in 29, and for four years it basically fell and I believe this number was 80 or 85 was the peak and it dropped all the way, like four lost, like 85 or 90% of its value in four years.

But you can also see that long term trend that’s been in place that in 2009 it came down and tapped it. So in 2009 after the big housing implosion, it recognized and it found this trend line again, which you can see, I mean it hit it in, what’s that? 33? And then here sometime in the forties it looks like, like again in the forties and then in the sixties it danced along that line for about a decade. And then the bullish run accelerated. And this is the nineties, right? This is what, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, or 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, yeah. So these are the nineties, the late nineties when the market just roared. And then you have the.com bubble. You got to 2008, 2009 housing crash. And after that we came back and found that level. So if we have a crash that’s as bad as 2008, then I would expect that we’re likely to come back down to this trend line.

And if it is worse than that, if things turn out worse than the oh eight crash, which I think there’s a possibility that that could happen because we have bubbles in stocks. You had a bubble in real estate that started to pop, stocks have started to pop. Uh, bonds were in a bubble. Commodities were in a bubble. I mean, pretty much all major asset classes were in a bubble crypto, which I don’t really consider an asset class, but some people do. That was in a bubble. I mean, you had bubbles in pretty much everything, which is what happens when you print trillions of dollars and just give it out to people. So there’s bubbles in pretty much every area of the economy and they’re all starting to pop. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see this be just as bad if not worse than 2008 or 2009, possibly even.

I mean, we could be heading into depression. I don’t know. We never know. Things change, right? Politics could change geopolitical reasons, things could change. The world’s on fire. It’s not on fire yet, but I think it’s headed that direction. I know that’s a scary outlook and a lot freaks a lot of people out. But here’s the beauty, okay? I can’t control the overall economy. I’ve been saying this a lot lately too. I can’t control the over economy and what’s going on around me. I can’t control whether the larger economy does anything good. All I can control is my economy. And the way that I control my economy and make my economy grow is by being realistically about the overall economy. If I stick my head in the sand and pretend that this isn’t real, then I’m in trouble. I can’t do anything to grow my personal economy.

But if I know that this is a possibility and we could be headed into a depression, then I can prepare in however ways you feel necessary and then you can learn to trade. And if you trade the downside, this year has been a spectacular year, okay? Like 150 to 200% so far, year kind of year. If you can make 200% on a bears move, you’re gonna be just fine. Okay? So don’t fret. Learn to trade the downside. Learn to watch for, you know, it’s not a really clear signal here. This is what’s hard. We haven’t had any real clear bear signals at these trends. A lot of times you’ll get, you know, a hesitation there. Kinda like this one right here. This is what I look for. This is not necessarily normal. It kind of, it can be even though it’s happened twice, but this is more of what we would look for.

In fact, this was a fun ride, right? Cause I saw this, right? We had the big move to the downside over about two months we had this little pop. We came back up to that resistance of 41 and it danced here for several days. And right there during that period is when I started to load up. I started to nibble on some a little bit here. I saw this, I was like, eh, I didn’t stop out of it, but then it popped back below it. I went, you know, we’re about possibly about to drop, drop. I had stops right here. We’re really close to it. And boom, it tanked. That was a fun few days. About a week, week and a half. This was not so fun because I gave back some of what I got there, but I captured most of it, right? And I should have realistically seen this little double bottom and caught the top.

But you know, it is what it’s, I have caught some of this to the upside, but uh, it’s always a learning experience, right? It’s always challenging to figure out what’s next. That’s the beauty, that’s the fun of, of training. That’s one of the reasons I love it. It is always super challenging to try to figure out what to do and how to manage things and how, how to manage your emotions mainly. So, so I will call it a day there that we look at the 200. There’s what I think’s gonna happen with the SPX this week. I think we, if we continue to run, we’ll probably hit the 200, possibly come to that down trend line about 40 81. And uh, if we do that quickly, it’ll probably turn over and drop like it did here is what I’m expecting. Um, if we pull back here and settle in, then we may have a decent, a decent little move coming from a bull side. We’ll have to wait and see and see how the market reacts and then make our decisions based on what it does and take it from there. So thanks for all putting up with me for this week and, uh, hopefully we’ll see you again soon. Take care. God bless.


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