Welcome ladies and gentlemen, its Rob. Welcome to the Market Intelligence Report and that is for Monday, October 10th, 2022. Hope you’re having a fantastic day. Hope it was a great trading day and it has been a good trading week for you.
Hopefully you’ve been cautious with the market that we’re dealing with out there because it is fricking crazy. Guys, look at what went on this week. I mean, if we look at the VIX, I’m gonna kind of bring this in a little bit, right? So you go back, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. So this was Monday, so we gapped up Monday, we pulled back and it was like, woo, okay, everything’s going good right? Then Tuesday, Wednesday and what happens? Oh, OPEC comes out and slams us with a 2 million barrel cut in oil a day. Double what the US has been using in its reserve stores. And not only was it opec, it was OPEC plus even Russia agreed to it. “OPEC plus.”
So VIX wound up climbing back up and if this was Friday’s VIX, which it is, we almost got back to where we were. You notice I’ve got red and green zones on here. I also happen to have some yellow zones down there. Uh, I’ll be explaining that in the near future for now. Red bad, right? Really high volume out bad. What does bad mean If you’re a seller, it’s really good. A lot of premium in the options as a buyer. Really bad fear. Really bad, right? We get up now, have we been higher? Without a doubt, but that doesn’t mean 30, 31, 32 is not high, It’s too high, right? It’s not what we wanna see on a normal basis. Get up there a little bit, come back down. Life is good, but we were already on that downward stroke and then we whoosh snap back up again to the upside. So we’re sitting at 31.30 on closing basis today for VIX.
Let’s go take a look at the S&P 500 now and let’s see what the heck happened there. Well, you can see the entire fib and I’m gonna grab a drawing tool in here guys, becayse you really need to see what in the world has happened. I mean, you gotta get your head around it. Great V top right, pull down, there’s our v bottom. We moved up into the 50 percentile. There is our upside down “h” that never stopped, right? And what happened? We got down into this dreaded box of neutrality we lived there for such a long time, and we gapped out of it this week. When you look at it, here we are, Tuesday, we gapped right outta there and people are like, Yes, yes, yes. Life is good, right? Life is good. And then what happened? We get another nice, uh, we gap down, we pull down a little bit further, we break through the eight moving average and we pop back up again. And now we hit the 3,800 level, and that was on Wednesday. We bump our head on ugly, which is that 21 moving average. And then we open lower again on Thursday. We push down, not as far, we come back up to the 21 again and wind up closing lower than we opened without a doubt, but not down to the lows of the day. All right? That wasn’t too bad. That’s yesterday. Now, today, Friday, what happens? Slam unemployment numbers come out, payroll numbers come out, people are freaking out. Unemployment is looking better. What does that mean better? Well, there’s less of it. That means less people on unemployment. Not good. Not for this environment, not for this economy, not for what the market’s looking for. They wanted more people on unemployment because it means what the Fed is doing works. Nope, I don’t think what the Fed is, well, I don’t think the Fed is doing anything that works, but I don’t really believe that this is the, that we’re there yet. We’re gonna get there, but we’re not there yet. Don’t ever believe this is the end, right? Oh, woe is me. What a life! Don’t worry about that. We’re gonna come out of it right now. We’ve gotta deal with what we’re having or happen, have happened right now. Where are we back in the blue zone, Back in the dreaded box of neutrality, almost back down to the lows that we have seen since hitting the highs right back down to these levels yet again. Blowing away the 20%, we’re about 24% again right now. 24, 25% pull back right now on the market.
So what are we looking at for next week? All right, let me scrunch this chart down and let me give you some numbers, give you an update so you know what to be looking for next week.
Here’s the saving grace. We didn’t chip away the ice today. What does that mean, Rob? If you’ve seen some of my previous videos when I talk about wicks breaking through, right, like it did right here, we kind of broke through the bottom of that, Fib line and we snapped back up, which gave way the next day to pierce through. So I’m looking through to see for next week, are we gonna break that 3616 level? Are we gonna break that 3,600 level? If so, we’ve got nothing stopping us.
We’ve got Fib lines in there and they’re important and they are gonna be support levels. But what I’m talking about, nothing stopping us is we got ways to go, my friends, a ways to go to get back there. We’re we’re talking about going all the way back here to December of 2000 to get back to those levels. I know this is a busy chart, I apologize for that. I’ll fix that for you there. See, that’s much a-more bette! So where are we looking at? If we break that 3615, 3600 level, we’re looking at a move down to 3532, and from there we’re looking at 3,500. Now that midpoint is where I tell you where I keep saying it’s going to. It’s not if it’s when 3382.50 mark my words, we’re gonna get to that level. It may be next week and may be next month, but we are getting there. We are gonna make it down there. We are gonna test that level and then we’re gonna test and we’re gonna think, and depending on what’s going on economically, we’ll make a difference of where do we go from there? Does it go back up? Does it go back down? I don’t know. Let’s see when we get there, how close are we to the elections? What’s going on? Did we fix the oil debacle? Did Venezuela decide to produce more oil? Now that we, we have to give, take sanctions away from them and give them stuff we don’t want them to be able to do, right? So we can get oil in there so we can not have these crazy prices. Again, $4, $4 a gallon by December is what’s expected because of what just happened. That’s when we’ll see all the k, the cutbacks kick in $4 a gallon and gas and climbing.
It’s not gonna be a good situation at all. Right? So if we bounce this week, that would be nice If we bounce this week, we’re looking at the move back up to 3,700 and then 3719. Those are the two next upside targets. We’ve got a confluence of the 21 moving average, bumping our head on ugly. There’s a strong ceiling there, but that doesn’t preclude us from breaking through and getting up to 3767, which puts us back into a neutral bias. But right now, true bear, baby, the bear is out. How does a bear fight? Pop up? Swing down. That’s the way the market goes, right? I think the bear’s just punching you in a mouth is what’s happening there. Hopefully you’re able to capitalize on the market this week. Take advantage of it. I hope you crushed it on your trades this week. And with that, make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it and remember you just won trade away. Take care of everybody. I will see you at our next update. Bye for now