Welcome everyone. This is Robert Roy. Welcome to the Market Intelligence Report, which is for the week of September 19th, 2022, and is being brought to you this week by Trading U. Now folks, keep in mind everything we look at is for educational purposes, only nothing is meant to be advice or recommendations. Now, with that being said, I’ve got one thing and one thing that I wanna focus on today – only $194.03. What? $194.03. Yeah.
“What, what do you mean, ‘what?’ Don’t, you know what that is? “Well, that’s how much the S & P was down this week that puts us at about 40 points a day, roughly 200 points, about 40 points a day on average, removed to the downside. This is a weekly chart. That last candle is this week, right? Wow. All right. What a crushing hit this week.
Now, did we have some recovery today? A little bit, but not enough to say, “oh, things are good.” We gapped down today, and this whole week, you know, if we back it up and look at the entire week, right? If we come right back here into Monday, we gapped up on Monday, so we were in not a true bullish bias, but we were in a bullish bias. At that point, it was aggressive to take a bullish entry. We had lower highs, which had also represented lower lows including today.
Now, I talked about this last evening in the, Mastering The Trade with our Power Option Plays team, and that was Monday, Tuesday, we take this massive gap down and just go with a crushing blow. That’s where the majority of our move came in on Tuesday. Wednesday, so what happened? We closed below the .618 on Tuesday. Wednesday, we retested the .618 and came back yesterday. We pushed up to the .618 yet again, and we failed and tested the lower end of that and that a hundred point level 3,90, and the wick went down below. But what did we do? It’s the second time now in the last two weeks that we’ve breached, broached, broke through that 3,900 level. And it’s kind of weakening the floor. Every time you walk on that ice, it’s getting weaker and weaker because we keep breaking through it. And today, BOOM CHAKA LAKA, we crush right through that level. We got down right to our blue zone, and we’ve played there all day long. We went up a little bit lower, we came a little bit higher, but look what happened again? We broke through that next Fib line and even the 20% bearish market.
We’re back at that level again, that 3855, we’re at 3873.33 right now is closing price and there’s still some corrections it’s right after the market closed, so we may get a few pennies of correction one way or another that’s okay. But we close right above that blue zone in there because that level of the 3855 is critical, and then on top of that, we have the 3864.04 level, which is our Fibonacci level. Both of those combined blue zone. It’s an area of strength, but what did we do? We weakened the ice today. We broke through it. Does that mean we’re gonna fall and collapse from here? I’m not saying that, but we are in a true bearish bias right now. So to take directional bullish trades, unless you have a, an amazing chart set up and a reason, a compelling reason to take that trade bullish, I would be ultra cautious, especially with the fed.
I did not look today, but last evening, when we did our Power Options Plays, it’s called Mastering The Trade. Anywhere that’s registered in Power OptionsPlays comes into this training for free. It’s included as part of your subscription. And we, we go over some very high level things on how we trade stocks inside of POP inside our Power Option Plays. And we talked in there and I said, “the chances of a 75 basis point hike next week are 75% chance of a hike,” right? And then now what’s left. Well, you’ve got 25% left. Where does that fall? Is it mean we’re gonna be higher than 75% lower than 75%. It could be a split. NOPE. No split and nope, no lower 25% chance. And it will change a little by the time we get there, but a 25% chance that we get to a one point rate increase.
Now I know there are people out there like Elon Musk stating that we need to see a quarter point drop. And I, from an economic standpoint, the economists that I talk with, do not say a cut, in interest rates is what we need. They’re saying that we haven’t done enough. And now we’re in this overreaction model and we get through this. Every single fed governor goes through the same thing. Now they’re not looking at the market. They’re not supposed to be looking at the market. They’re supposed to focus on the economy, not on the market. The market is secondary. Now that’s all fine and good, but the average person seems to have some cash in the market these days, so maybe they need to focus on that since people’s retirement is based on this. And since the government’s not gonna give us more money for retirement, we probably need to know what we could do to fix this so we don’t see these slides take place.
I have a neighbor of mine that was, I won’t say what he did, but he worked for New York City and 2007, 2006, he’s talking about retirement. He’s talking about retirement. 2008 hits and 50, almost 60% of his portfolio… Gone. He retired this year on forced retirement based on age forced. Now he had enough to do with this year. He was okay. It came back. But we’re talking about from ’08 to 22, before he was able to retire that’s because he had money in the market. Now the fed had to react in ’08, right, and try to play catch up, and it was too late. There was nothing they could do. And it took a very long time for us to recover. And if you lose 50% of your portfolio, if you have a hundred thousand dollars portfolio and it drops to 50,000, what does it take to get you back to a hundred percent,? To a hundred thousand?
Well, if you had 100,000 and dropped to 50, that was a 50% drop. But now to get back to a hundred, you need a 100% gain to take 50 up to a hundred, you’re doubling it. It’s a hundred percent gain. It’s a heck of a lot harder to gain 50 than it is to lose 50. Okay? ‘Cause you’re starting with that smaller number, right?
So what are we looking at here this week? I wanna see where the fed comes in next week, where things, you know, level out for us there. But folks, we’ve got this 3,800 level down below, we’ve got this 37 and jingle down here and we need to start calculating the next percentages to the downside of what we’re looking at from our highs. And I’m gonna do some of that with Fibonacci this, not this week, the next week, when we get into our Inner Circle, we’re gonna actually start calculating not the 20% pullback, but where’s our 21? Where’s our 34? That’s the things we’re gonna start looking at because those are the more important levels. Not…20 is a, just a general number that someone made up on time for no rhyme or reason… Let’s use 20. It’s double what I can do in one, in one setting with my hands. That’s 10 to it’s easy. I can do that math it’s easy, right? 17. Ooh, that that’s kind of harder. Right? We don’t wanna do stuff like that. We will. We’re gonna do it based on what works, not based on what someone goes, “Ah, this is the easy way to go.”
Focus, focus, focus. If we look at the VIX…. So VIX, there we go. Finalized. Now the VIX popped up and pulled back. So we’re getting a little more aggressive and it pulled back. And part of that came down to this what I would call somewhat of a rounding bottom pattern on the S & P today. And even though we didn’t get back to where we closed yesterday, we got back near the gap,, Not all the way, but near it to where we gap down, we came in closer proximity to that, to that gap. If you just look at the horizontal line, look over to the right, you’ll see the rest of the candles, We got a lot closer to that, which is why VIX reacted the way that it did, but it’s still at 26 and a quarter right now on VIX. So is it high? No, it’s in a normal range, but it is on the higher end of that normal range.
All right, there, you have it, ladies and gentlemen, make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the question becoming great trader, keep crushing it. And remember, remember you’re just one trade away. Go ahead and follow us along, down below. Go ahead and like this video, as it shows on YouTube here and make sure you keep up with all of the most important content that I put out on a regular basis across all of our social platforms. All right, everyone have a great day and I will see you on the next one. Bye for now.