Market Outlook for the Week of 8/21/23

Welcome one and all to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy, and this update is for Monday, the 21st of August, 8/21/2023. I hope you’re having a fantastic day. I hope it has been a great trading week for you. As we dive in here, keep in mind that everything we look at is for educational purposes and nothing is meant to be advice or recommendations. Now, if you find a candidate, an indicator, a setup, something, anything that you like here today, make sure that it fits your own personal risk profile and risk tolerance before ever taking on that trade that’s set up or that indicator. All right, so let’s dive in.

So we’ve got the S&P 500. Man, we have fallen oh boy, in the last couple of weeks. <Crash> A little bounce on Friday, but other than that, it ain’t been pretty, that’s for sure. Lots of fears of what the Fed talked about this week and SPI and all that good stuff. Unemployment Walmart coming out and saying this Target coming out and saying that, you know, overall, if we look at a weekly chart, a very weekly chart by the way, right? We are down this week, 94 points on the S&P 500. We broke out last week on the close, just down barely below that uptrend level. This week, we annihilated it. We came back up, retested it, kissed goodbye, baby, came right off it with that wick and that we failed, right? And I’ve been out of pocket from trading this week. We were away on vacation for a week, my wife and I. I didn’t get in trouble two or three times getting caught watching CNBC. My wife’s in the other room, I don’t want her to hear it, right? But I was watching CNBC while we were away. I had my computer open to my Omega Chartz, I got TradeStation going, and it was not a pretty thing when she walked in twice <laugh> and saw me with TradeStation open. Bad enough when she saw CNBC on. But overall, bearish move to the downside.

If we go back and look at the daily chart, you can see from a moving average standpoint, we’re in a bearish bias. We’re not true bear, but we are bear, okay? 4181, it’s a coming baby. I think we come back and retest at some point. It is gonna happen this week, this month? I don’t know. Okay? But I do believe we’re headed back down to that level. I would not be surprised there. Now, there’s a lot of things up in the air right now ’cause of what? 2024 election, you know the president cannot go into the election with interest rates at 8%. We looked at properties while we were down in Florida, and that’s the first thing they said, “well, you know, we’re at 8, 8.125, 8.25, 7.99 if you got amazing credit, right? The government can’t go in there and expect to win the election with 8% interest rate. They just can’t. So there’s gonna have to be some things taking place in there to, to fix some of this. So, you know, no interest rate hikes. I think you’ll hear more positive notes on what’s going on there. Although the president’s not supposed to have any say on the Fed, eh? Okay, sure you go with that, right?

So if we look now at VIX for a second, let’s see what’s happening there. VIX, we pushed right back up at the high level of the yellow zone. So we’re still in a in our yellow zone, which is, you know, our low zone. We’re on the high end of that. So we’re at that that three right there, right? Overall looking good, right? VIX, we’ve come up with it, yes, no question, but I ain’t really worried about a 17.30 VIX, right? I actually like that 17.20, 17.22 a little bit better, right, than that 14, 15. Directional trader? Definitely better to have the low, right? But if I’m doing any selling, it’s hard to get it. And since I do both, I kind of need to have a balancing act going on there to get where I’m looking at to be. All right.

So S&P 500, where do we go next, folks? All right, so right now, if we continue to push down, we’re sitting at the 4367 now. If we continue to push down, 4317 is our downside target on the upside 4,500. And then we’re looking at the eight moving average, which happens to be a confluence of the 55. We’re looking at 4426, right on the upside.

And there you have it, ladies and gentlemen, right? Make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it. And remember, never ever, ever, ever get through the weekend without going over to TradingLikeABoss.com and check out all the free resources we’ve got there. All right? Take care folks. See you the next one. Bye for now.