Market Outlook for the Week of 7/10/23

Welcome to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy. This update is for Monday the 10th of July, 2023. I hope you’re paying attention today. It was an interesting day, actually, a critical day in the way that the market ended up. Let’s go check it out. First…Keep in mind that everything we look at is for educational purposes. Nothing’s meant to be advice or recommendations. If you like what you see, something, anything in here, make sure that it fits your own personal risk profile and risk tolerance before ever taking on that trade strategy trade setup, so on and so on and so on. All right,? With that, let’s go ahead and dive right in.

So we look at the S&P 500 and we really, really need to dissect what has just happened over the last little bit. All right, so if we look at the last week of what took place, maybe a day or so more, so this was previous Friday, okay which would’ve been the 30th of June, okay? We had a good strong push up, higher high than the previous close right here, and excuse me..On Monday we were down a little bit, just ever so slightly. Tuesday we’re off. Wednesday we had another hollow candle, but we were down again, just ever so slightly, right, and then we gap down here on Friday, right? I mean, not Thursday. Big move to the downside. Today we gap down. We went right to the 4,400 and whoosh. We got this strong push to the upside. What just happened? If we go over to TradeStation and we look at this on an intraday basis…Let’s get this back to a five minute. What happened? We had that quick little gap down. We ran up, we got a pullback, normal pullback time. We got a good strong run. And right about 1:30 or so, we went bye-bye and pulled back. So the bears tried to take it right outta the gate, the bulls took it back, held it till 1:30, and the bears closed hard and I mean hard, all red, all down. And where did it close? It closed in a bullish neutral bias. It is below the eight, which is the pink line. It is above the 21, which is the green line. That’s good. We’re still in bullish territory. We close right at the 4,400 level where there’s a confluence of the eight moving average. So that’s great and fine and good. The critical component here is this. If we break to the downside, we’re watching the 21 as our critical level. If we can hold above that 21, we’re doing okay, we get a close below the 21, which, of course, has another Fitbit, right there we’ve got a confluence, I mean of a fib line and the 21 moving average, that’s a strong line, stronger than the a hundred point level with the 21 or the eight like we are now, this fib line is much stronger than a hundred point level is. All right?

If we break on a close, we’re looking then at this bottoming pattern right in here, that recent swing low. We’re looking for that as our next target to the downside, right? So we’ve got a little bit of of steps down to focus on if we move up, you’ve got that 4461.77 level, That is our resistance right now. And if we can break above that, we’re looking at 4,500 and then 4544 and jingle is our next upside there.

Right now there’s a lot happening this week and I mean a lot happening this week, right? So we had the economic reports today. We got CPI on Wednesday. We got PPI on Thursday along with unemployment. FOMC member Waller speaks. You’ve got consumer sentiment on Friday. So Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, all fed reports, all reports that the Fed will be on as to what’s going on.

When we look at the bigger picture, right? If we go and look at a weekly chart of the S&P 500, we’re still strong. Overall, we’re still very strong, but now three of the last four weeks we have bumped our head on ugly. We cannot get above the .764. Slightly last week on a close ,slightly, and then a small gap down. And we’ve just continued to push to the downside ever since.

If we look at the monthly chart, right? Also strong view on the monthly. So that longer term view, yes. When we look at that shorter term that daily, I am concerned of whether or not we’re gonna be able to hold to sustain where we are. If we look at the VIX fear, right, our fear factor, we are down today about 62 cents on fear, right? So we’re down a little bit. We’re down a little bit now at 14.82. I ain’t too worried about it. I mean, we’re still super low options. Prices are really low. I’m looking at diagonal spreads, buying December and January options February, options and finding $4 or $5 and $6. I mean, there’s, it’s nuts how low our volatility is, right? Oner more time back to SPX, you’ve got your critical levels and they are just that – critical. Make sure you stay focused on them. And there you have it. Ladies and gentlemen. Make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it and remember, you just pone trade away. Take care, and I will see all of you at our next update. Bye for now.