Market Outlook for the Week of 5/1/23

Welcome everyone to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy, and this update is for Monday, the first, yes, the first trading day of the month of May, 2023. Man, what a day it was. Look at the VIX. What a great move to the downside. It’s about $16 right now. So we are in yellow zone, which is low. We’re on the higher end of that, so a rank of three. Just phenomenal looking VIX right now for buyers. Man, you are in the right place at the right time. When it comes to the S&P 500, let’s go take a look at what the heck happened here today.

Out of the blue, we rocked to the upside. We closed at 4169.55. If you look to the left, “look left,” if you look to the left, you see 4169.48. That was our recent swing high. Now, this doesn’t replace a swing high. It’s a recent high, but not a swing high. We don’t have a lower high yet to call today a swing high day, but overall, it’s doing what we want it to. We pressed right up to that 4169 this morning. I said we had to look for that 4144.59 level. If it broke that 4169.48, and we are there by 4869.11 11 cents, we missed the key level by 11 whole cents! A $4,000 key level, right? So where are we looking at then for today? Let’s go look at the intraday moves and see how the market did on the intra day.

So here we’re looking at a five minute tab of the day. We had a quick little gap down today, a nice move up, first reversal, second reversal moved up in there. We went into lunchtime and kind of went sideways. We drifted off after lunch. We got a little pop right into the very end to close on the high of the day. I mean, look at the last five minute candle folks. They were trying, they’re fighting, they’re pushing for that 4181. Couldn’t quite get there, but that’s okay. I am very pleased with where this chart is sitting right now. If we go and look at a weekly chart on the S&P 500, right, we are still in that sideways mode. Yes, we’re out of the blue rectangle, our blue zone that rectangle there… But, but, but, but we have been up to that 4181 multiple times before, so we’re back in that range again. The breakout, the retest and the bounce, that is the key of what we’re looking for. We’re looking at a monthly chart and you can start to see a little bit, not a lot, but a little bit of a curve to the upside. We are in this sideways mode here and this is kind of that like that now, right? So almost that cup and handle ish type pattern there. Monthly, still sideways. Once again, 4181 critical level that we have to break above, period, the end.

If we go and look at economic reports and we’re gonna go look out for next week, right? What does we got? We got ISM, you have ADP, you have FOMC. Well, they got a statement there at two o’clock. That’s okay. Oh, Fed rate. The statement is what’s going on with the fed fund rate. They should have actually had another way around, and the press release, press conference then at 2:30. So what are we expecting? The expectation right now is a quarter point. The expectation beyond that, it’s still showing an additional raise of an additional quarter point. I don’t… And I do believe we’re gonna get two. Do we need them? I’m not sure. I I feel we need one more. I don’t know yet until I hear what the Fed has to say, my opinion of where I think we should be at this point, but I do think we need one more rate hike at this point. This one that’s coming up. Or whether we need it or not really doesn’t matter. I think the fed’s going to do one more rate hike, and then we’re looking for that forward looking statement. What do they say is coming next? What’s down the pike for us? Right? That will be the critical, the key, the needed information for us to make a decision on, “Are we gonna have another one from there or not?” But right now the market’s planning 25 or 28%, I think the last I checked, which was a few days ago, chance of another hike. The next go round after this May one is over.

Okay, so one last look at the S&P 500 on the daily chart. Actually that’s weekly, not daily. Let’s go to the daily chart. All right, I want to back up so you can see the entire fib, right? Fib itself is good. Nothing wrong with that. Fib great stretch down there. Phenomenal run. Great move, right? If we do look at, well actually lemme go back to the weekly one more time… If we do look at the weekly, you could see we were all the way up here at 4815 or so, and we’re sitting at 4,200 right now. So we’ve got a 6-700 point moved yet to the upside just to get to the recent highs that we have had. It’s actually all time highs on top of that.

So what are we looking at to the downside? 4145 is our downside target. This 4169.48 is, is pretty much gone at this point. It doesn’t exist. I’ll take it off when we do power option plays this week so I can explain why it’s coming off, but it doesn’t belong there any longer. Period. The end, it’s done right, we hit it. We don’t need that line any longer. 4181 on the upside is the first target. 4195 is the next target. That is the top of our fib line. We need to press back into that fib and it’s very simple folks. I mean this is not a hard concept whatsoever. Break above 4195.44, pull back, bounce. That’s what I’m looking for. If it doesn’t move up and it fails, or pushes into the 4181 and fails, we’re looking for the downside then that 4145 and that 4094 are the two downside targets.

There you have it ladies and gentlemen. Listen, make sure you go over to TradingLikeABoss.com. Check out all the free resources that we have up there. And with that, make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it and remember, you’re just one trade away. Take care everybody. I will see you at our next update. Bye for now.