Market Outlook for the Week of 4/17/23

Welcome everyone to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy and this update is for Monday the 17th of April, 2023. I have one word, yes, one key word for today and that is “indecision.” Look at the S&P 500 today. Look at that stretch of what happened there. Look at that puppy go, baby. Big wake up. It opened up, down a little bit on the day, it ran up, it ran down, it broke through that recent swing high we had in there, that we finally broke through on the close yesterday. We got down just about where we opened up doji with two very long legs in there. Indecision. Mark it, uncertain what to do. We finished downabout eight and a half points on the S&P. Not huge. And it’s not the eight and a half points that… And I don’t wanna say worries me, but that I need to think about is what I need to think about is are we gonna hold that eight moving average? See it right here, look at it! We came into it again, if we can hold it, awesome. Or are we setting up now for our next candle that may look like this, that gives us a swing, high. We had a high, a higher high. And of course we’re not there, but if it does this on Monday, we have a lower high that gives us a new swing high. And that eight moving average is critical in the hold pattern there. We have to see if we’re going to hold it or not.

And when we look at the intra day on the S&P 500 today…We look at the intra day today, right? Really nice bounce on the S&P today, right on the open, really strong, just like normal. And then we get a pullback into that 1:30 quarter to two-ish time period before we got a little boost, a raise up, and then we just, we put in higher lows and higher highs. So, nowhere near the high we were of the day, but nice recovery on the S&P from where it was.

Now, if we look at the longer term picture of the S&P, let’s start off with weeklys. How weekly? Very weekly. What’s going on, right? We have this sideways pattern, 4181, holding the line right there at that 41 81. Are we gonna break through it? Are we gonna fail back down? We’re pinned between that 3810 and 4126. That’s a regular fib channel that we’re looking at inside of the on our weekly chart. We’re looking a monthly chart and it looks very blah. You know, the candles are kind of just stacking up next to each other, moving averages. Ain’t no moving anymore. They’re going <flatline noise> dead flat line, right? They’re just there. And this is on a monthly chart. We go back to our daily chart on the S&P, and again, we broke above.

If we just look at this, there’s a slightly bigger picture. Let’s see. All right, so we have a high, a low here. We have a higher low, we have a high here, we have a lower high. We need to break above that 4181 and 4196 level with a high to put in that new swing high and give us the opportunity to continue that push to the upside. If so, it’s “Katie, bar the doors,” and I think we’ve got some opportunity to run, but there’s still a lot of concern with economic reports out there. I mean, look at what came out retail sales today, right? Yes, retail sales were not as good, but in line with what we’re looking for for inflation, in line with what we’re looking for for a recession, right? Some of the feds have come out recently and spoke. We had some today, right? The chatty caddies, right? Just talk in a way of their opinion of what’s going on, right? All of this shifting markets left and right of what’s happened, right?

Next week, we’ve got the fed speak. Let’s see, where are we? So it’s actually just Waller. So FOMC Waller is speaking again next week. We have Empire State Manufacturing. That one’s okay, not a big deal to me. Unemployment, very big. Philly Fed, not really. Flat PMI Purchasing managers Index. Yes, that’s another big one for next week. So we’re a little bit lighter next week on reports than we are this week, but still a lot of importance to them.

When we look at VIX, fear, what’s going on with fear, right? Here, let’s actually go here. Dollar sign, vix, right? So the market is down and we get down for the second day in a row into a yellow zone, which is low. We are in a low zone on the VIX. If you are a buyer, this is an ideal place as a buyer for options. Doesn’t mean all options are are deals. It’s an ideal place. But wait a second. The VIX is supposed to be an inverse relationship, Rob. When the market goes down, when the S&P goes down, the VIX is supposed to go up. Well, in theory. Doesn’t always work that way. There’s overreactions to the markets and so forth. Today we’re back down again, even though the market is down as well. So we are in confluence between the VIX and the S&P today, right? So overall, still looking well, but we’re at 17.10. That green zone starts at 18. We’re at 17.10 on our current VIX price right now. Right? And if we go back one more time and look at the S&P 500, right?

Let’s get some key levels of interest there that we definitely need to focus on. Write these down. 4181, check. That’s the first line to the upside. 4195.44, check. That is the next line to the upside. We’re gonna put one more in there. And that’s 4312.66. We’ve got a long way to go. I don’t plan on us getting there this week, but that is our next level that we need to be focused on, right? For the downside, we’re gonna look at the eight moving average which is 4109. And we’re gonna look at that 4093.74, and then the 21 moving average at 4062.34. All right? And the moving averages are moving targets every day. This is Monday’s targets. You gotta look at those levels every day. With that, make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it. And remember, if you did not register tomorrow, Saturday, yes, I’m doing it on Friday, Saturday, we’ve got another hour last key to be free. Let me show you what it takes in 2023 to get you free. All right? Have a great rest of your day. Good weekend, and I’ll see you on Monday. Bye for now.