Alright, so let’s start off on the S&P 500. It has been a rocky ride. You know, this orange bar represents last Friday when we did our last update. We had that massive drop off on Thursday, a good little bounce on Friday. We broke through the 21, came back above the 21, just barely above the eight. Got above the eight, Monday into Tuesday, Wednesday, gap down, right, retest on Thursday and today has been a kerplunk, right? Just it’s kind of you know, “holy cow, Batman” type move. Today we’re down. We’re still about 10 minutes up till the market closes. We’re down about 75 points right now. Intraday, of course. So, you know, we had the recent swing high, the 5264.85. Yeah, okay, I like it. But we couldn’t get back up there again. So when we put down and we got a lower low, we actually had the lower low here and then another lower low and then another. And then today another. You see what’s happening folks, things are changing. So we need to analyze this, but we need to do this from the perspective first and foremost of back here in position number one in the chair, right? I am sitting back looking at the market, I’m leaning forward because I want to get closer to the mic, but looking at the market saying, right, what do I see? This is Rob. Now as I look back, I want to go and see the, the entire fib first, okay? So I like where the fib is. Nothing really changes in there. We might be able to draw something new. I’ll look at it again this weekend, but for now we’re good. Okay? So our eight is getting near the 21. That’s the very first thing that jumps outta my head is the eight’s getting near the 21. Besides the fact that we are putting in lower highs and lower lows. So if we grab a pen, let’s do red. We had a high and a low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, and today a lower low. So in essence, we’ve got that pattern setting up right in there and we have that all taking place all within the guise of this bigger, longer term bullish trend that we’ve seen now for the past couple of weeks.
And as we’re watching the market and we’re watching what’s happening, you’ve gotta look at those higher highs, or in this case, lower highs, lower lows. And you’ve gotta start looking at where we break and what our bias and rank now become. So we broke down on last Thursday, we got down into a neutral bias on Friday. I don’t remember exactly where we were, but we right about, we just barely got back into bullish there. Barely. But we definitely came back up over Monday and Tuesday, even if we were in a neutral bias still. We came back to bullish come Wednesday of this week. We’re back in neutral bias again yesterday. We’re back in bullish bias again. But you could see the moving averages are pinching down. You’ll see a faster slope on the pink line, the eight, because it’s a shorter term, you’ll see a quicker slope than on the green line, which is more like this, right? So the eight’s coming down much faster. The green line, not so much. That’s the 21 today. We just blew it all away. We broke right through this Fitbit that’s inside of here, which is our .118 level. So we’re in a neutral bias right now.
We’re at a rank of three, so we’re not even near anything at this point. You know, a key level like the 5138.06, we’re not close enough to that. So we’re a rank of three. We broke right now. If this is our closing price, we have seven minutes left. But if this were our closing price right now, this would be telling me that we broke this uptrend line. So again, if I back this out a little bit, right? And now you can see back here it says zone three. Okay? So we broke through this zone three line. So we had, you know, other levels that were in there, other zones that are in there. So we broke through that uptrend line. We broke through the 5138.06.
So the magic question has to be, what am I looking at for this upcoming week?
So 5,100 is the very first place I see. We’re not getting there today, but 5,100 is the next downside. We are in a neutral bias right now, so I can take bullish or bearish positions. But the overall pattern is bearish because our moving averages have got so close to each other on the tip of the eight and 21, the green and pink, we can easily get back up through there. It’s not a hard task to climb through both as it would over here where you got a long way to go to get through both of them, okay? That popup would be awesome. But right now the biggest concern is that 5138, the break below ’cause of the intersection of the trend line from zone three, and of course the Fitbit. We’ve got 5,100 down below there as our next stopping point. We got close to it today. Not quite there, but what do we add for a low today? 5108 we’ll call it, right? So eight points off of that level if we break through there, 55 doesn’t count as a support, but our 5056.70 level does. All right? So there’s our downside stuff.
What about the upside? Well, the 5138 is the first place, right? Again, we won’t have an intersection there. Now that only happened here. Go figure. Right? Right. There is where it happened for us, where we broke through now today. But I want to get back above that 51 38 and I need to get back above this diagonal trend line. That’s a given no matter how you slice it. We need to get back above that trend line. Our moving averages are gonna continue to drop. We’ve got bigger days happening in here. A lot of movement will continue to drop if we get another day down come Monday, let’s say our eight will cross through the 21 and no longer will we have that right order of our moving averages. Get back above the 5138, retest, bounce, get above the trend line, and then 5,200 becomes resistance. And then 5219. And then now we need to really look at getting above still that recent swing high, which is the 5264.85, and then 5284 would be our next target from there.
If we look at VIX, which is fear, fear’s up, right? We’re at 17 and jingle. It has been a while since we have closed at 17 and jingle. We are, and, you know, traded through that price, not just a wick that stretched through. We gotta go all the way back to November 1st to find that, right? So it’s crazy. Alright, so I was so interested, so anxious to get to the S&P.
We never looked at the economic report, so let’s go take a look at those. Monday, we do have some reports, 8:30 AM retail salesempire State Manufacturing Indexmore retail sales already. So busy day on Monday. Be careful with the pre-market. On Tuesday we’ve got a couple pre-market, which is building permits, industrial production. FOMC, one of the members are speaking at one o’clock and at 1:15 on Tuesday, Powell speaks. So if you’re in a trade, expect lighter volume potentially. Just caution, caution on any open trade as the Fed’s gonna speak, particularly Powell Wednesday, we’ve got another Fed member, which is at 5:30. The market’s closed. 8:30 on Thursday is unemployment in the Philly Fed. 10 o’clock existing home sales could potentially affect the market, but not so much.
All right, and there you have it, everyone. Stay focused on those levels that we talked about. Keep honing in on it. Keep getting back to position number one in the chair. Analyze that, diagnose what you see, what’s happening. Lay out a plan, talk it out verbally speak it, see it, speak it, hear it, animate it. Everything you’re doing is to build more, more where you are strengthening that inside of you that you have that plan built. And when it does come time to execute, you’ve got something you can do. Instead of going, oh, now what? It’s moving really big. What should I do now? No, you already have a plan. If it goes down, we do this. If it goes up, we do that. If it goes sideways, this is the plan. Have the plan identified. Have a great rest of your day, great weekend. Talk to you soon. Bye for now.
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