Market Outlook for the Week of 3/20/23

Welcome everyone to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. This update is for Monday, March 20th, 2023. My name is Robert Roy. Let’s go ahead and dive right in. So it is an interesting week, interesting day for sure, right?

Overall for the week, we are definitely up, but there’s some key numbers that I want to give you. You wanna jot these down if you don’t have ’em ingrained in your brain, you want to jot these down. Well, the first one is not important to jot it down. It’s just important to recognize it. 4364. That’s how much we were down today, right? We pulled back today after opening slightly lower, gapping down, little stretch up, could not move to the upside, and we pushed back down. Now, we went from a bearish neutral bias right down into a bearish bias today. What is that telling me? Well, it, it’s not the, that we came down into the bearish bias that’s important by itself. What’s critical is how it happened around what structure or what level of importance. So the very first thing we violated the negative, I mean the .618, not negative, the .618, that 3929 level, that purple line right there, we broke it. On top of that, we have a confluence there with the 8, which gives me added strength. The 21 is backing up as resistance for yesterday and today on a downward trajectory with the angle of the moving average. Now, what you don’t normally see from this on me or on here is this, you’ll notice there’s a very faint blue dash dot line right here and a dark blue line right here, right? And if you look, the light blue is the 233, that’s the equivalent of the 200 in Fibonacci-speak. And then the darker bluish purple is the 89. That’s equivalent more of the 100. So the 100 200, right? And we have a 55 up in here. Well, the 200 higher moving average, right? In an ideal world, if everything’s moving up, life is good, right? We have got our moving averages in the right order, but not what we’re looking at right here. We saw the 200 yesterday cross down, yeah, right into yesterday. Cross down below the 89, right? It gives us what is called a Fibonacci death spiral, right? We’re looking at that, what would be the 50 and 200 day cross. This is an 89, 2 33 cross, which are fib numbers. All of these levels are critical. 50 the 89 and 233, the 3929, which is the fib line, and the 3927.97 So we’ll call it 3928. Those levels are critical. And when we step it back and look at the bigger picture of what’s going on, right? Let’s keep it right there for now. So we had to pull back, we got a nice H pattern right in here at the 618, boom, chaka lala one, two and a half, and we fail, right? We go one standard deviation, two standard deviations, three standard deviations. This sign was in here for a particular trade setup. We could take that line outta there for now, but it a fibot is not needed, but it did hit on that fibot.

So what’s happening yet again? Now, we are now putting in lower highs here, here, here, right? And we had this low here, but our lows had gotten higher. So the critical component is going to be how does this hold up in the overall pattern? You’ve got this down here, you’ve got this up here. We’ve got this wedge. All of this happening while the market is bearish. The overall market is bearish. The SPX has bearish connotations to it below the moving average below the 618, all of that, right? So on top of the heels of what’s going on with the Fed, don’t get me started on the Fed and SBV, right? File bankruptcy today, not the Fed, but that may be coming soon with what they just did after SBV, right? But if we look,if we look on a weekly chart on the S&P 500 folks, you could see that we bounce right off of that 3810 level and that overall downward pattern we had there. Now, we’re still indecent shape to the upside here for the SPX. We had higher lows in here. We have higher highs. Holding that 3811, 3810 level is gonna be extremely important for us. Extremely important. Especially if there’s a downtrend line that has a confluence right there. When we look at the monthly picture here, we’re more in that sideways than have been for almost a year now, right? 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. It’s the 11th month of <flatline noise> sideways. Yes. Strong moves up and down intra day, right? Very strong moves up intra,up and down intra day.

No different than if we look at the VIX, we talk about strong moves. My God, look at this, right? Goodness gracious, great balls of fire. Look at how big a candle here. We stretched up then on the 13th into the red zone, and we pulled back, we stretched up again here on the 15th into the red zone, and we pulled back. But look at the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 candles. Massive bodies. Six of them in that very sideways pattern, but huge volatility. We are setting up right now at the higher levels of the VIX in the green zone, right? We’re still in what would be considered that midpoint right there. So a two, but we are definitely in a place of concern here.

We go back to the S&P 500, back to SPX, right? What’s our levels? What are we looking for? Well, 3929 on the upside would be awesome if we could break it. I’m concerned whether we do or not. And and why is that? Well, you’ve got the Fed coming up next week. You know, we just had consumer sentiment today. And if we look at consumer sentiment, let’s go back and look at the ES, which is the futures for the S&P 500. That report came out at eight 30 today, right? And that was eastern time, right? Where is eight 30? Well, 8:30 was right here, right? That’s the close of the 8:30 candle. So that’s the start of the news announcement. We moved up strong, push down, hard run, pull back, little bit higher and goodbye. Someone finally opened their eyes and goes, what are we doing here? I don’t have an answer of what the Fed will do. I think the Fed is going to do a quarter point, and it’s baked in pretty high. Last time I looked, which I haven’t seen it today, but the last time I checked, it was about 85% chance of a quarter point hike after the Euro raised a half a point, you know, 50 basis points. And the US saying we still needed, our number’s not coming down on PPI at least not to the levels that we need, right? Unemployment not moving in the right direction, or at least not to the levels that we need, right? If the fed stops, there’s concern, and I don’t have the answers, but there’s concern that we deal with recession. And even worse than that, we start to deal with stagflation, stagflation, very long-term, dragged out recession, high levels of unemployment, extended long-term higher prices and, and, you know, just not a good place for us to be.

So you can see the overall, what the ES, the S&P 500 did today. Here’s the SPX, right? Came outta the gate, quick pop, double tap, and a fail. And then we just did this rollercoaster sideways the rest of the day. All right? So ladies and gentlemen, there you have it. Make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it. And remember, you just won trade away. Take care everybody. I will see you at our next update. All right, bye for now.