Market Outlook for the Week of 3/13/23

Hey, welcome to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy and this update is for Monday, the 13th of March, 2023. Now, I know if you’re a trader, you’ve been watching, you’ve been looking, you’ve been checking out what’s happened with the SPX, with the S&P 500 over the last couple of days, particularly lots of focus and interest, even one person on CNBC calling it “the most important report of the month for the Fed,” and that was unemployment, which came out today on Friday and what happened? Crash, bang, boom, baby. We remember we pierced through, we chipped through, we broke through the ice yesterday on this .618 on the fibs. We got down through there and opened the door to the downside, right? Today the market opened in pre-market or during pre-market. We had a nice run to the upside on the announcement of what was going on. And you could see a little arrow I dropped in there. That was the 8:30 candle on the ES, which is the S&P 500. Why? Because unemployment had gone up a little bit. Yes, hooray. Two-Tenths of a point from 3.4 to 3.6. People are looking at it going, I don’t know. The president of the United States comes out and goes, “we’re moving in the right direction.” Thank you Mr. President and kerplunk. We just come falling to the downside there. Now, we tried recovery more than one time, right? We had the bounce take place, the pull back, we tried back up here again, it’s about 11:30 or so when we failed yet again. And that’s just what gave way to the rest of the day. We just look ugly.

I mean, if we go back, and look at the S&P 500, you could see right outta the gate, 9:30 we dropped down there. It’s that 11:30ish time period when we rolled back over again. And keep something in mind as we did roll back over, we had a previous high set in there from the 8:30 announcement. So that right there was critical that it was a lower high. It was telling you play the downside. Hopefully you were able to take advantage of it. Go ahead and, and ring up some coin. Pick up some premium today on some of the trades. That went off, right?

So what’s happening now? Where are we? What are we looking for here? Well, it ain’t looking good. Well, or maybe it is, right? I’ve been talking about the .618 was our critical level, right? That was it. And we burst right through it yesterday. We were down 70 points almost today. We’re down another 57 points to the downside. We pushed down through the .764. We’re almost at the point that the fibs are no good any longer. They’re gonna need to be considered as a redraw on there. The, the thought of we’re getting back up here at this previous swing high. We can just get that puppy right outta there now, because I ain’t worried about that level at all. We gotta get past this one first, right? But we’re looking at 1, 2, 3, 4 of the last five days. We’ve got a very strong bearish thrusting pattern in there. We’ve got no relief whatsoever.

That little itty bitty bounce there when we pinned between the 8 and the fib line back on Wednesday. Not a big deal. We still pierce through the, you know, chipped away at the ice. We broke away at that 50 percentile line. If I bring it back the other way, you can see that’s the 50 percentile and if we really keep bringing it out, what’s going on? Well, we’re in danger of getting back down into the downtrend level. If we do, if we fail at that point and we push down, what are we looking for? Well, I’m looking to see if we are going to beat or break this 3764 level, which was the previous time as we attempted up to resistance right back in here November end of November, mid-December. And we failed. We couldn’t pull all the way back on this trade back down to the downtrend line, right?

So based on that,, we’re gonna look at that level, that 3764.49 level as the next downside target. “Well Rob, what about the upside?” Well, we’re gonna take it one line at a time and that’s all we can do right now. We’re looking at the negative .618 again at 3929. But I am also looking at, we are now in a strong bearish bias. We’re not true bear, but we’re not. But a day or two away from that, the eight moving average is on the bottom. 55 is in the middle, green’s on top, which is 21. I just need that green come down a little bit more and we’re in a true bearish bias, right? And when I tell about, I don’t know if it’s time to do swing trades, I may go ahead and do some string trades to the downside. If we can hold on this, if we can pull back, come down a little bit more, pull back up to the .764 and fail. I love it.

Now you gotta watch this down turn line and then of course you gotta watch that next Fib line, right? When you look at VIX. Look at that. Look at that, man, we are back up. Goodness gracious, we’re back up in the middle of the VIX level. So we’re still green, right? Which is a good zone, but we’re now in the middle part of it, which I saw this yesterday already after the move up premiums on covered calls, diagonals, naked puts, my credit spread type trades, crazy premiums, very expensive. Buying the longer term options on diagonal spreads for almost every single one that we did, there were one or two that worked out really well numbers wise, but other ones that were, eh, you know, we gotta spend a lot of cash to do this trade now. And that’s cause of what’s happened with vols kicking back up, with uncertainty kicking back up and with the market dropping back down, right? Because that S&P 500, I don’t see the relief yet. There’s nothing in the economy to me that says it. I’ve been saying this for a very long time. I don’t think per se we’re going to come down and test the lowest lows that we’ve had. I don’t think that’s gonna gonna happen when we get back to this point here on the S&P, which was roughly 3491.58 roughly, right? That was the exact number. 3954, 3491.58. I don’t think we’re going to get there, but I do believe we’re gonna test this 3764 without a doubt.

All right, there you have it. Ladies and gentlemen. Caution is the word pay attention. Focus on what’s happening with the S&P. 70 to 80% of all trades. Move in the direction of the s and p 500. Keep your trades that way. All right? Make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest to becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it and remember, you’re just one trade away. Take care and I will see you our next update. All right, bye.