Market Outlook for the Week of 3/6/23

Welcome one at all to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. My name is Robert Roy, and if you could tell, I am fairly excited today to get into our report, our update on what’s going on in the market, and what I see happening next week. This update is for Monday, March 6th, 2023. And when we look at the, the market itself today, we look at the SPX, what an absolutely amazing move. It’s about a 60 point move to the upside. We’ll just wrap it up on the day right now. We’ve got a few minutes left on this chart because we’re a little bit delayed on this data coming through here. But overall, what an amazing move today. We actually finished up, we closed today on SPX at 4045.64, right? So 4045.64, we just snap a line in there that was pretty close. That’s where our closing prices right now, near the high of the day. So overall has been a phenomenal move. What has happened? Well, what came to fruition today was what I’ve been talking about for the last week, and it finally happened, right? Or it, it not finally, but it happened today, expected to, right? We had a nice move up. We had our pullback to the .618 and a bounce and where did we go? One, two standard deviations – exactly what it’s supposed to do. That is an upside down h Yeah, I know, I know. You look at the H and you’re like, that’s it. You right. Nope. Really? A fibonacci h looks more like that, right? And an upside down fiche h looks more like that, right? That’s exactly what happened here. We had to move up the , and the bounce two lines a little bit more. That’s the norm of what we go get. Two standard deviation moves. It makes up 96, 97% of all data points happen within that subset. There you have it, right? What a great turn to the upside.

We went from a bearish market to a bullish bias overnight. We took out the recent swing high that I’ve been talking about again last couple of days. We gotta take out that next swing high. We did it today. Now the next one takes us all the way above the next swing high, takes us all the way back above here and, and puts us up into near the, the highs of this overall run. This pattern that took off there is this, it, are we going up from here? Is this, you know, bull market? Now, let’s calm down folks. Keep something to mind. The fed’s still got a couple more interest rate hikes to go yet, right?

My thought is we’re gonna probably see another three quarter point, and of course that could change. I don’t have a crystal ball. You know, me and the Fed aren’t having conversations about it. They’re not asking my opinion. They should, but they’re not asking my opinion of what, what I think we should do. But I do believe we’re gonna see about a three quarter point more hike, not all at once. We may see three one quarters, you may see a half quarter. Really some of the numbers coming out next week will make a decision on what in the world is actually going to happen. And if we look into next week, you got Fed chair Powell testifies 10:00 AM man, you know, that’s a big thing on Tuesday, right? Then you’ve got testify again on Wednesday at 10:00 AM you got non-farm payroll, unemployment claims that we don’t expect too much outta that non-farm payroll change, right? Unemployment rate. That’s where we’re looking for the bigger insight of what’s going on there. So there are some things happening next week that could cause that. And it really is gonna come down to what Powell says. If he comes out and says, you know, everything the market wants to hear, you’re gonna see an explosion to the upside. I don’t know if that’s gonna be the case. He’s not been one to tow a party line of trying to make the market go one direction or another. I think he’s gonna say what he’s gotta say because he’s gotta back it up at some point as well.

If we go back and look, and we’re in a weekly chart here now, all right? So overall, nice, nice, nice move. It puts us about equal last week’s open. We’re still up above our moving average. We go to the monthly, I mean our downtrend lines. We go to the monthly, we’re still – we’re sideways. Nothing’s happened. You could almost draw a line off the opens and, and or closes here and here. Watch. I mean, we’re right there. This is five months in a row. We’re right at that level. We’ve broken up above it last month a little bit, but non-sustainable up to that point. And now if we look at the vx, this is the interesting one. If we look at the VIX, we have pulled back now the last couple of days. I

So vix, let’s see, all right? So the VX in the last two days has gone from 21 to 18.50. So 21.50 to 18.50. So three full point, move to the downside. Awesome. What an awesome move overall for the VIX to the downside. It puts us in a, a rank, a bias of medium and a rank of one, right? We’re starting to rank the VIX itself now on how high or low inside of that green zone we are, right? We are in the lower quadrant of that, which means really good for buyers. Sellers have to be a little more cautious in what they pick out there, right? If we go back to the SPX, right from 10 o’clock this morning on actually, and later we are had a, you know, which is when we had the ISM today, right? Or yeah, the ISM PMI. So we had this nice move up. Here’s our 10 o’clock candle, that’s the close at 10. We had a slight pullback and a bounce right off of that, right off that 4,000 level folks. And that has been the catalyst here, and that’s what’s driving us to the upside to have that two standard deviation move on the fibs. I am liking it so much, right?

So how am I planning to, to trade next week? We’ll see when I get into POP this weekend as we go through the various candidates, this is the market, but we’re in a bullish bias. But the moving average are still in the wrong order. It’s not that hard to get them in the right order to get the 8 above the 21, the pink above the green, but we’re not there yet. So could this be an overreaction? Could this be overbaked? Could the news next week of Powell have a dramatic effect? And the answer is yes. So we’ve gotta see what’s going on there. With that being said, I’m still gonna keep everything down day trades. I’m probably not going to branch out into a swing trade. And when I do start branching out into swing trades, I can’t say when that’ll be, but when I do, it’s gonna be all aggressive setups. All of ’em are gonna be small contracts, four-ish type contracts is what we’re gonna look to do. All right, hope that helps. Have a great rest of your day. Make it a profitable one, and I will see all of you at our next update. Take care folks. See you soon. Bye for now.