When we look at the VIX, right, we’ve gotten a little bit of rise in the VIX in the last couple of days, a little down today, yesterday, and the day before, really. So on Wednesday and Thursday, really the largest moves overall. We’re sitting at about 20.50, which really is not that big a deal, right? We’re still at a very low level on VIX overall now to be concerned with whatsoever, right? But we did see some nice rise where we were about 18 or so a little bit earlier on in the last week, week and a half or so.
So if we go ahead and look now at the S&P 500, let’s go check that puppy out and see what’s going on. I wanna look, big picture is where I wanna start today. So we’re gonna head into the monthly, you know, this would now be January was a close above that down trend February, we’re still above that down trend. If we can maintain that, that is fantastic, right? For the weekly, we’ve had a couple of weeks now where we’ve had pushes above and continued closes above that lower, I mean that upper line there on that downtrend line. Now we go back and look at the daily chart from the daily. What are we looking for? What are we seeing there?
All right, you guys have all seen this week after week, I show this picture of how we’ve got this overall big downtrend going on in the, the grand scheme of things. We took a bounce off of where I put that little red triangle there. From this little, this lower level, we took a bounce. We ran into resistance, we failed, we did not get as far down, and we bounced. We broke out, we retested, we came back again, we pushed into the 4181, and that is the key level right now. So last week, this was Thursday. Sorry, I was just looking at the wrong spot. And as I see that pushup and there we close right at the 4181. Beautiful. We knew it’d be resistance and that was that we get a long, a long tailed doji with the candle closing on the lower quadrant of the, the overall pattern, the high low gap down to the eight, good strong move back up there on Tuesday, Wednesday was a fail. Thursday was a fail. All of these setting up with lower highs. Yesterday, Thursday’s closed, we got down into a bullish rather neutral bias on the s and p 500. So what is that telling us on this candle here? The bulls had been fighting, right? And pushing and pushing. We got up until the 4181. And now whether it’s just a breather, whether we are just at a natural pause point, people are taking profits, whatever you want to call it, whatever’s going on there, we saw some lull in the gains take place. Now, did the announcements from Powell help some of the bullishness in there? Absolutely right. Traders are still fighting overall that the market’s not gonna continue to go down because interest rates are almost done going up. There’s more to it than just the interest rates. Take it from someone who’s been through this since 1997. I’ve been through a couple of these markets before. I’ve got a fairly good understanding of what tends to happen. And this could be different than they’ve been in the past, but if history does repeat itself we’re still in for a little bit more pain. I don’t think we’re gonna see the massive lows any longer, but I think there are a lot of things that are still out there to come. I think there’s a lot of layoffs out there that we’re, we’re not seeing yet come out, right? A lot of tech layoffs, 150,000 people or so. It was, I think this year so far in tech have been laid off. Mean that’s massive, right? Ebay, PayPal, all kinds of announcements going on out there, right?
Today we came down and we gap down on the open, right about that 4071 level, which is the -.382. From there we stretch a little bit further down towards the 21, not quite, and we gotta bounce. Now, we are still in a bullish neutral bias, right? We’re still getting lower highs. We broke through the eight. Our next downside concern is the 21. You see, what did we do today? We chipped away at the ice, right? That little ice chipper, right? That little chipping hammer we broke away at that fib line right there and pierced down. We bounced, but we’ve kind of broken the ground up a little bit and given away to say, “yep, if you want to continue that path, we already started for you, it’s a lot easier to go through it now.” Right? So we’ll see pin between these two moving averages where we wind up come this following week. If we push to the downside, then there’s no question, I’m trading it down to the 55 and then down to the next fib line, which the 55 right now is 3983, and the next fib line is 3911. So I’ll scale out of some at 3983 and take the rest of the trade down at 3911, right? If we bounce and get above the eight, ideally I’d like to see the move above the retest and the bounce, then that’s the ideal setup for us. Why? Because we’re already in a bullish pattern, right? Short term as it may be, we’re already in a bullish pattern. If that happens, then we’ve got some room up to that eight moving average. You gotta be careful there. That is going to act as a resistance. That breakout pushes you back up towards that 4181, 4171.81 level for, for that next fib lvel ow, right? And we’ll look at it from there next week. If it breaks outta the 4181, here’s my ideal…breaks outta of the 4181 retest, bounce, BOOM! Now we’re gonna ahead and look for long directional swing trades at that point. All right, there you have ladies and gentlemen, stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing and remember, you just won trade away. Take care. Have a great trading week, and I will see all of you our next update. Bye for now.
Stay In Touch
We hate spam as much as you do. We promise never to spam you and only send you emails filled with tons of value. Jump on our mailing list to stay up to date with our newest content, receive special offers, and stay connected!