Market Outlook for the Week of 2/6/23

Welcome to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. This update is for the week of Monday, February 6th, 2023. My name is Robert Roy, and let’s dive right in. So here we are again. Yesterday it happened. It happened, it happened, it happened. I’ve been talking about it, I’ve been saying it. I profess it. People doubt it over and over and over again. And what happens? We run right into the major Fibonacci level, the 4181 that I’ve been talking about for weeks now, about being that key resistance. And we closed right at it yesterday. Look, 4181. The exact number, the whole number is the Fib number itself. If we look yesterday’s closing price on Thursday, the close came in at 4179.76, so that means a $1.24. We missed it by on the close. We broke through it. We, you know, just popping our head above the tree line there and came right back down again. Uh and today was just that gap and just ugly, ugly, ugly with some of the, the economical ports that came out, right, with the jobs numbers and so forth. So guys, you cannot, you cannot look at Fibonacci and just go, “it’s just a line!” They’re not just lines. They are key levels that work. Respect those levels. Does that mean you’re gonna run into that 4181 and never breakthrough? Of course not. That’s not what it is. You’re going to break through, but you want to do it the right way, right? You wanna break through, retest and bounce. That’s the right way to get con continuation consistency in that pattern, in that move. But make sure when you see fib lines, you do not pass up on item. All right? With that, let’s dive in.

If we go ahead and bring it back and look at the bigger picture on the, the daily chart maybe a little bit too big, you can see that down trend line was broken, right? About two weeks ago now, two and a half weeks ago, right? On a really nice strong move up, right? We broke, we pushed back down, we came back up, gave a small retest and a bounce, and things have been good. Now, are things really good, or are people wanting things to be really good? Yes, the economy is doing good. There’s still low jobs number. People are getting higher wages. You’re seeing a bunch of layoffs take place now. Oh, but it’s, it’s just some of the bigger name companies say, well, where does it start? When, when a company lays off seven and 10% of their staff, that’s a lot. That’s a lot. When Amazon announces that their Amazon Fresh stores are on hold and they’re actually closing someone down, that’s a big deal. When Microsoft and Coinbase and so many others announced layoffs, it is a huge deal, right? So are people just wanting it to go up? I mean, Powell came out and said, we’re not done. We’re not done. Don’t think by any stretch of the imagination, we are done raising rates. We’re not there. Our measures have not worked yet. He said it, right? We ran up yesterday on that news. It’s like, wait a second, we’re just gonna, you know, your parents told you don’t touch the hot stove, and you go, I’m gonna do it anyway. Ah, you know, okay, great. Now, listen, be very clear here. Do I think that we are in a bull market at this point? The answer is no. Can we still have some bullish moves? Yes, I do believe we can have some bullish moves. I’m just waiting for that next shoe to drop, right? When you have reports came out last night on Amazon, apple, and Google, all three of them bad, right? All of them. Amazon lost money for the first time since what, 2014 or 12 or something like that. They said right the first time, right? Something is off. If we have that much economic boom, why? Why are we seeing the, the losses there folks? There’s adjustments that need to be made in some of made in some of these stocks. Right now we’re sitting at a bullish bias on the market. We’re in the middle of nowhere.

This recent swing high doesn’t work any longer. We don’t need it. That’s gone. I’ll take that out in power option plays this weekend, it’s gone, right? But that 4181 level, and there’s a fib line there, 4170.56. Lemme just pull that out a little bit so we can see better. 4170.56, that’s a blue zone inside of there, an area of resistance. Now, can we push through, retest and bounce? Yes. I’m not saying we can’t get any bullish moves here right now, we’re in a bullish bias, but I wanna see either a breakout of the 41, retest bounce, or I want to see the move. Well, it could go up to the 4170 and fail. I’m okay there, but I want to see preferably the move back down to the eight moving average, whatever the level will be. Right now, it’s 4191.25, move down to it, near it, just below it, come up, retest it, and bounce. Then we’ve got another leg up. And that’s what you need. You don’t want straight up in the air. That doesn’t work. Not now, not ever. You need to move that stair steps. It goes up, it pulls back, it goes up, it pulls back, it goes up, it pulls back. This could be the up and the pull back. It’s just interesting. And it happened at a key level, right? So yesterday, as you saw the approachment of that 41 81 on the market, it’s a place to say, you know what, maybe I need to set a stop or tighten up a stop or exit the trade, whatever it is, because I’m getting into that resistance area there, right there. Key levels, that work, period. They work.

All right. So if we look at a weekly chart though, now let’s go look at here. We gotta change this back to SPX. So from a weekly chart, we’re still looking good, right? We ran into the 4181, of course, not on the close, but we ran into the 4180. One of the close is gonna be here where we are now, right? If we look at the monthly chart, of course, again, everything’s gonna run into the 4181. Doesn’t matter what you’re on, right? What timeframe you’re looking at, one second, one minute, one year, it doesn’t matter. It’s gonna run into that 4181and be just shy of it at this point, right? So overall, every one of the charts, all of them are giving us bullish connotation. Moving averages are not quite there yet. On the monthly, we look at the weekly and the moving averages. Actually, I don’t have ’em on the weekly but on the monthly and the moving averages, and I do that on purpose just to keep it clear, easier for me to see visibly, right? When we go back to the daily chart, guys moving average is doing a true bullish bias at this point, right? So overall, I like it. I like the pattern, I like the setup, but make sure you wait for the right setup to happen. If we look at the VIX, the fear factor. So we’re down today, fear is down today. Go, go and figure the market’s down a good amount, right? What was the total on the S&P today down, because we were up this morning when in the pre-market we were up, and once that announcement came out, we saw 30 point drop in the s and p. So we are down 44, 43 points today, and the VIX is down. Wait, what if, if the price went down, fear should go up. So why did the price of the VIX go down? Right? I’ve said this before on this report. We have a disconnect right now between the S&P 500 and the VIX, where the market and the VIX, it is not correlating the way that it used to. There is no coherence in there. No the, the, the gears are just not melding together. There, it’s kind of off a little bit. It’s stuck, right? It’s not, it doesn’t seem like it’s reacting properly in there, and it’s not.

Occasionally, we’re seeing a lot of times where we’re getting an inverse relationship to the way the market moves and the way the VIX moves. We’re getting a lot of overreaction in the VIX, which could be part of it, right? But we’re just, we just seem like we’re off timing a little bit on the setup of the VIX. All right, so what am I looking at for next week? If we go back one last time to the s and p 500 for next week, I am looking for, we’re on the daily chart. I am, I am looking for next week, the pullback and the bounds, or the breakout, retest and bounce. That’s all I wanna see. That’s my clear and concise entry for taking the trades. There you go. Make it a profitable day. Stay focused on the quest of becoming a great trader. Keep crushing it. And remember, you’re just one trade away. Take care everybody. I will see you at our next update. Bye for now.