Market Outlook for the Week of 1/16/24

Welcome to the Traders Market Intelligence Report, brought to you by WealthBuildersHQ.com. This update is for Tuesday, not Monday – Monday’s a holiday – for Tuesday the 16th of January, 2024. Hope you had a great trading week. Man, it is great to be back. I have been on the left coast the entire week. Made it back late last night, first day back in the market today. So let’s go ahead and see how the market did. Let’s bring up chart.

So we start off with the S&P 500, and we’ve got about two or three minutes left until the market closes. Right now, we are up a whole $3.60 from yesterday’s close. The 3.60’s not important. The dollar amount’s not important. What’s important is where we are and the pattern we are seeing set up, right? So if we go ahead and look, we had this nice push up here and we failed. We came back into our moving average, the green line. We’ve got a diagonal trend line, we’ve got a hundred-point level, our Fitbit in there. We had a really strong break and what’s happened now, ever since? We’re getting the tops are holding, the bottoms are increasing based off of the moving average, which is parallel by the way, to the diagonal trend line that’s there. Okay? So we’re pushing up, we’re pushing up, we’re pushing up into that 4793 level, 4,800. There’s a combo between those two. And lemme just scrunch it down a little bit. We keep failing, right? And that was where we drew our fib off over was that 4793. We did get above it a little bit today. So what do we do? We chipped away at the ice.

Yeah, you’re underwater at the ice. You’re chipping up, right? But we broke through the ice, right, Which gives the ability….It kind of paves the way and go, please go right ahead. Go through, right? We opened it up. We’re looking at a potential break to the upside here – at least that’s the way I’m looking at it – is I wanna see the move up, right? So I love what’s happening there. Not a lot of movement yet today, right, which is a little surprising, but we’ll see what happens on Tuesday because we’ve got this three day weekend coming up. I’m wondering if we don’t just have a quick selloff taking place here and we call it a day.

We look at VIX, what’s really happening on VIX? Eh, not too much. We took a little bit of a pop today, 23 cents. Really nothing considering yesterday we were down and the market was down, right? So overall, really not a whole lot happening out there whatsoever.

If we look at bigger picture timeframe on the market here, so we’re looking at, let’s go to weekly before muffin. So we look at a weekly chart. How weekly? Very weekly. Let’s see, let’s bring this back to reality. So 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 outta the last 11 weeks have been bullish weeks including this oh one, right? We got a nice bullish week going on right now. Up 86 points. Overall, strong. Where are we running into the -.272. Here’s the important thing. When we go back to a daily chart and we look at the daily, we’re bumping our head on a resistance level right now. That’s important to understand, but you need to combine that together with the knowledge that our weekly chart is also running into a resistance level. “Yeah, Rob, it’s running into that red line up there,” 4824. We’re running up into that level right now. We’re not able to push up through it yet. Well, guess ? It is the -.272 level, what does that mean? -.272, For those of you that do not follow along with fibs, is a hesitation level, so it is not surprising that on a daily chart we’ve got one indicator, which has nothing to do with what’s on the weekly chart. We’re running into both of them there except the daily. We broke through first and gave that little chip away at the ice, right, giving way for the potential on a push higher.

We go back and look now at a monthly chart. Three of the last three months have been up and where are we running into? Up? So the same place on the upside that we were before, right? So we’re running into that same area except the difference here is, if we go back to a daily chart, our fib line ends on December 28th, 2023. We go to a monthly chart and our fib is drawn off of January 31st, 2022. So a whole different ballgame as far as the where goes that we’re running into. So three different timeframes, three different fibs, all of them bumping their head in, in similar areas. Of course price they’re bumping their head at, but I’m talking about fib, lines that are drawn on those charts. We’re running into each and every one of those, which is critical, right?

So where do I see the market going next week? Ideally I’d prefer to see it going up because right now we are in what is called a true bullish bias. We’ve got movement to the upside. We’re bumping our head on ugly right now, which is our fib line and a hundred point level. That 4,800 level right there. If we can break out of there, breakout, retest, bounce would be the ideal for me, but there will be times that we’ll just get a breakout and we will never look back again. We’re looking at about that 4887, which is pretty close to that 4,900 level to the upside. If we fail, we’re looking at the eight moving average as the first downside target, right? Wherever that might be. Right now it’s at 4761.32. If we fail below that, that diagonal trend line, if we break that support level, that diagonal trend line that’s in there, that’s our phase three trend line. If we break through that trend line, we’ve got some potential concern at that point. But until then, even if we move down a little bit, as long as we don’t break through that trend line and I mean pierce through it even, we should be good to go there.

You have, ladies and gentlemen, have a great rest of your day. Have a great trading week next week, a good weekend, and I will see you all on our next update. Bye for now.