Market Outlook for the Week of 1/16/23

elcome, ladies and gentlemen. This is Rob. Welcome to the Market Intelligence Report, which is for the week of the 17th. Yes, the 17th of January, 2023. Remember, Monday the 16th, the market is closed and what a week it has been! I am blown away by some of the results of what we’ve seen happen here. Let’s go jump in. Take a look, man. We are just diving into this sucker today.

So what’s happening here? Well, if you look at the bigger picture of what’s happening, you see this downtrend line. I’m gonna zoom out on it in just a moment so you can see the entire thing. But look what happened Wednesday. We just barely closed above that down trend line. Now, we’ve closed above it recently before. We haven’t closed above it very much in the past at all, right? We’re up there, but we haven’t closed above it. And then yesterday we gap up, we pull back balls and bears fighting like crazy in there, but we close with a higher close than the previous day than Wednesday. Today we gap down to where – where else?? To the trend line, folks. Everything happens for a reason. It pulls back to that trend line. We stretched down a little bit further on the open and we bounced, right? So the bears tried and they fought, but they lost, and the bulls were able to push and close up higher than it closed on Thursday. So what’s going on here? What, what’s our next step? So, hold on a second, just because we’ve had this run up, that doesn’t mean the bearish market is over and the economy’s back in shape and inflation’s under control. Yeah, we had a flat CPI, we had unemployment was okay, but we’re not by any stretch of the imagination there yet, right? Inflation is still very high no matter how you slice it – Wow! Who better listen to the government, “it’s better,” right? The governor here, the president, everybody, “it’s better!” It’s better than it was, but it wasn’t good to start with, right? It was much better a year ago, right? Than it is today.

So if we look back at a weekly chart, we’ve gotta look at the bigger picture, right? Look at the weekly chart. This is the best weekly close above the downtrend lines that we’ve had. Yet the best one, we have not closed as high as we have. This was the only other time in this entire down move from December, November, December of last year, of last, last year of 21 is the first time we’ve closed above. If we look at our monthly chart on the S&P 500, we’ve got a nice close above. We barely caught it with that corner. We opened up above and then failed for last month, right, for December of 22. But you could see once again, this is the first month and we’re not done yet. Remember that on the monthly, we’re not done. But this is the first month that we are sustaining above that downtrend line. So, when we go back and look into the daily chart… Well actually before we look at the daily on the SPX, let’s go look at the VIX. We’re at our lower end of the VIX right now. What does that mean? Well, my green zone is 18 to 29, right in that zone is a good zone, if you’re a combination buyer and seller. If you’re a seller, you want it on the higher end of that green, lower end of the red. If you are a buyer, you want it into that yellow zone – urther down you can go. The better off gimme like 10 11. That’s awesome. I buy really cheap low vols on there. Life is really good, right? If that’s who you are for me, who I’m I? A combination trader, you may be one or the other or combo. I put it at that 18 to 29 level. So we’re just at the very low end of that. The, the lowest quadrant of the green zone potentially breaking into, we did dip into it today into that yellow zone. All right? So fear is down immensely right now for us. So let’s go back then to the S&P 500.

So we’re there now, Rob, what’s the next step? What do we have to do? All right, couple of things. First thing is we don’t wanna just see another continuation move up. You got the close above, you got the move higher, you got the gap down to that line today, stretch down and the bounce. Beautiful, beautiful setup, which said go and crush it with your intraday trades. We just did about seven or eight trades between Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Quite a few of them for today based on what happened with the S&P 500. I just recorded Power Option Plays. So we’re looking at that. 4025 is the next upside target, right? That’s number one. 4072 is the next one above there. So write those numbers down if you don’t have ’em or of course, check ’em out on next week’s video, right? And then from there, we need to get above the recent swing high. I just put this back on in power option plays and said, listen guys, we have not had a recent swing high and how long it’s been forever since we’ve seen that on a chart that I’ve had to introduce that to a chart. And here we are again. We’re gonna press up against that. So to me, true bull, and when I say true bull, to truly be bullish, we need to get above the recent swing high that we had to get back into the higher highs and not a lower high. We still are at a lower high. So yes, we can have some bullish this along the way. And here’s the thing, you know, I am not out there saying that everybody who’s saying the market’s going up is wrong. People. There are gonna be some that can claim I called it on that candle, that that was the day that we were mounting for that. And they very well may be right. I am not the trader that’s trying to get the lowest low and take that highest risk of picking the right place to get in on my trades, my, my, my entries, right? My swings or my investments. I am looking for the lowest risk in the trade. And that ladies and gentlemen was not the lowest risk place. We had a lot of slop in there yet you may have bought a, a stock right here or a call option right here that pullback. You ain’t holding onto that thing. If you are, you just don’t have stops in place… Okay? You crazy in the head, right? I’m not gonna hold onto a trade that far down. It’s too big of a hit to deal with that. Oh, oh, I bought here. Oh, then I got down and ran here. You know, it’s the same all over the place. You may have bought a call or a put right here as we’re going down and it gaps up the the next day, right? There’s too much inconsistency in the moves of the market. For me, the way we talk this out each and every week that I do each and every day, the things we do in market mornings every week and the way we talk about the way stocks move and the markets progress, this is the right way to take the entries to me in a trade. It doesn’t mean it’s the only way, it’s the way that works best for me. Are there gonna be some that will dispute the way that I do it and say, no, he’s wrong. I do it this way. Beautiful. You go for it. You go for it. There’s a thousand ways you can make tomato sauce, right? Maybe a million, maybe a hundred million. Who knows, right? That doesn’t mean my way is wrong or right or anything else. It’s just the way that works best for me. No different here.

So watch for those swing highs. Get above the, the recent fib, lines, move above the recent swing high. And that that is when we’re gonna start looking at more bullishness in the market, all right? With that negative profitable day. And I will see all of you next week. Remember Monday’s a holiday. We’ll be back with this report again the following week, you know, on Friday. Take care folks. See you soon. Bye for now.