Market Outlook for the Week of 1/9/23

Hey everybody. Welcome to the Trader’s Market Intelligence Report. This update is brought to you for Monday. That would be January 9th, 2023. Hope you’re having a great day, and I hope it was a fantastic new year. Yes, this is the very first one of the year. I am excited. We’ve got a lot to dig into today, so we’re gonna do just that and jump right in.

I wanna start off first with our economic reports, and you can see next week we’ve got nothing on Monday. Powell is speaking on Tuesday. You got CPI on Wednesday, unemployment as well, and then you’ve got consumer sentiment with inflation, expectations on Thursday… Friday actually, that’s going to be, right. So you’ve got some big reports coming out next week, but very important, keep your eye on a, Powell has to stay there at 9:00 AM on Tuesday.

All right, let’s go and look first at the VIX, which is fear. And Fear was down today. Why? The market moved down, the economic report’s coming out. Things are looking good, man. Everything’s moving in the right direction for today, right? For right now we are down, the VIX is down to a 1.32. It’s down a 21.14 right now. What a great VIX level. It’s a really good combo. It’s in our green zone right now. I like it a lot. So with that, let’s go look at the S&P 500 and see what we can’t come up with for today.

So let’s drag it out, right, and go look at that much bigger picture there. We’re still in that overall down trend, right? That overall bearish, uh, trend there. We pushed up nicely today, almost 87 points today to the upside on the S&P 500. What a great move. What a phenomenal bounce of that 3218. I am so excited to see that, which was a baseline. You can see we’ve been basing out there for about three weeks now, and we finally got a bounce and I mean a bounce that was sustainable for the day, not one where we bounced up a little bit for the first five minutes of the open and then wham bam, thank you ma’am. Right back down again. No, everything is looking good, right? So right now, what are we looking at on the s and p? What do I want to see? All right. We’re still in a bearish pattern of the market itself. We have moved into bullish territory with one exception. All three moving averages are upside down, right? I need them to flip the opposite direction to be in a true bullish bias. I also need us to get back above this downtrend line sustainably, not for a day with a bearish candle. I need to see us get up there. We’re not there yet. I’m not saying this is a bottom and we’re going up from here, but right now the news today shifted in the right direction, right on the economic reports that came out earlier this morning. So we got that nice pop up, but I need to see that close above that downtrend line. I’ll bring it back in. Above that downtrend line is where I need it to be.

Okay, so what are we looking at into next week, folks? We had a big move today. No major economic reports on one day to worry about, so we’re not really gonna see much in the, the way of that affecting the market. Earnings are starting to come out at this point, so we have some of that to deal with. Not a lot of the majors yet.

I think some of the banks are announcing next week, but not a lot of the majors, the Amazons, the Apples, the Googles of the world, right? The Netflix of the world, not a lot of that. If we can sustain where we are and not pull back folks, I’m happy with that. But I really want to see as a starting point, as a place to dip your toe in the water. Get me above that 3911. That may very well be become our stopping point. Our failure point, the least strength we have is running into that. If we fail off of there, I’m looking for in the move back to the downside, if we can get up and make that move above, I can get excited, I can get happy about that. I can get charged and potentially look at some bullish trades, right? Follow along with the pattern, with the path of the S&P 500. Remember, 70 to 80% of all all stocks move in the direction of the S&P 500. Then why are you going to fight it? Just go with the flow. If the market is up today, trade to the upside. You’ve got a higher potential of being right in that trade. All right, there you have it. Ladies and gentlemen, first one of the year. Go and kick some tail next week. Have some great trades and I will see all of you back at our next update. Bye for now.